Thread by @Usherwood

This is a good starting point for thinking about what #EUCO Is going to do this week:

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by @Usherwood view original on Twitter

There are two, interlinked issues at play this week.

Desire to get a WA deal and lack of UK suggestions on how to get to one

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EU, like HMG, wants a deal very much, because no-deal is both intrinsically bad and it'll add to the already overly-long list of problems on its plate

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But HMG has only producing one substantive suggestion - on customs - since early spring. Nothing on IE dimension, or governance, or the other outstanding issues.

And nothing will come until the WP next month

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So what's the EU to do?

(And it is the EU. UK won't get to shape #EUCO conclusions on this)

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One part is suggested by @nick_gutteridge piece: hold out olive branch/carrot to UK, by promising richer deal if UK moves on red lines.

Has been done before, but wording might be more prominent than last time

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However, that has to be long game for eu: time is short, so choice has to be made now about next steps.

Key Q is whether to set explicit timeframe for progress to allow for Oct deal, or already now retrench to final act later on

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Precedent suggests push will be to stick to original timetable until last moment: have to assume more problems to come, so why give away any time now?

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Therefore, the main choice facing EU will be balance of admonition and encouragement in conclusions: need to help get HMG over the line, but w/o compromising own position

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Giving extent to which EU had tried to sound +ve about Customs proposals, might expect similar appeals/boilerplate statements about progress and intent

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However, that shouldn't obscure that things are alright getting very tight indeed to reach a deal in Oct, and even Dec will require a real change of gear

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So comments around the conclusions should be attended to too. Note recent ramping-up of language (and work) to prep EU for no-deal

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I'd assume that if #EUCO leaders reference the coming WP a lot, then they'll be expecting it to deliver solutions, so making the next week's vital for success of Art.50

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Realistically, if WP fails to deliver then summer will be very thin and autumn will be utterly frantic

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In sum #EUCO isn't going to deliver much beyond some words: Q is which ones

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