I've been keeping my eyes on retail BTC trading volume as a % of total BTC trading volume (charted).
It's the single best chart showing the death of sentiment in this bear market. Retail fell to as low as 5.6% on 6/8. The good news is that the % has stabilized at these levels.
It's the single best chart showing the death of sentiment in this bear market. Retail fell to as low as 5.6% on 6/8. The good news is that the % has stabilized at these levels.
I think retail interest will need to trend higher in tandem with higher price moves for us to break through key resistance levels.
To know why, let's look closer at the anatomy of the recent bull and bear market.
To know why, let's look closer at the anatomy of the recent bull and bear market.
The following chart highlights the 2017 bull market.
Observations:
- Retail interest trended higher or sideways with each drive up
- Average retail volume share was ~46%
In other words, price movements were dominated by infusions of new money.
Observations:
- Retail interest trended higher or sideways with each drive up
- Average retail volume share was ~46%
In other words, price movements were dominated by infusions of new money.
The following chart highlights the 2018 bear market.
Observations:
- Retail interest trended LOWER with each recovery in price
- Average retail volume share was ~15%
In other words, price movements were dominated by money exchanging through the hands of traders.
Observations:
- Retail interest trended LOWER with each recovery in price
- Average retail volume share was ~15%
In other words, price movements were dominated by money exchanging through the hands of traders.
Open thoughts:
- If the bear market persists and prices reach critical levels, I think that retail % would spike as some finally rush for the exit and new investors happily jump in
- If prices recover w/o an increase in retail %, I'd not be so quick to call a bull market
- If the bear market persists and prices reach critical levels, I think that retail % would spike as some finally rush for the exit and new investors happily jump in
- If prices recover w/o an increase in retail %, I'd not be so quick to call a bull market
As always, I'm open to your comments, thoughts, and speculation.
Published the indicator on TradingView for you folks to toy around with it.
tradingview.com/script/7kQfnWQ…
tradingview.com/script/7kQfnWQ…
I should clarify my definitions.
Things I classify as "retail":
- Bitflyer
- Bithumb
- Coinbase
- Bistamp
- Kraken
Things classified as "non-retail"
- Bitmex
- Bitfinex
The formula is retail / (retail + non-retail)
The script is open for you to modify if you disagree.
Things I classify as "retail":
- Bitflyer
- Bithumb
- Coinbase
- Bistamp
- Kraken
Things classified as "non-retail"
- Bitmex
- Bitfinex
The formula is retail / (retail + non-retail)
The script is open for you to modify if you disagree.
Note: this thread is a continuation/quantification of some thoughts I had several months ago.
Tradingview says my chart violated TOS. I’m pretty sure it’s not pornographic, so I’ll republish soon. Sorry if you got bounced from the page.
Republished the retail volume indicator. Thanks for waiting. tradingview.com/script/zSkZhP1…
Feel pretty nice about this script. We’re not getting a breakout from this bear market from BitMEX-driven trading volume.
