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Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg
, 16 tweets, 14 min read Read on Twitter
Hi all 😀It has been a good year! 2019 will be difficult for world economy. A lot of fall outs ahead from disinflationary environment. Get ready for last #HZupdates from the old year 👍
As I laid out at the beginning of 2018, we have seen a rally in #DXY. The USD rally is not over yet. I expect the rally to continuing into 2019 - reaching min. 107 before the rally is over, This will have deflationary consequences across various markets #HZupdates
#EURUSD topped early 2018 and has dropped to a low of 1.121 by Nov. But - this is not the end of this major Bear market for Euro. LT-target remains 0.91 likely to be reached by Q2/Q3 2019 #HZupdates
#XAUUSD will not do well, as this last phase of the USD-bull market unfolds. My target is ~750 USD before LT-target is in for this major correction since 2011. Do not get lulled into believing we have seen bottom for Gold. Bounce since 2015 has been B-wave #HZupdates
Strong #USD also has effect on #Oil. I called top earlier this year and expected a strong move down. We have seen that. This is strongly deflationary. But bottom is not in. We will see a bounce before moving on towards my target of <23 USD. Notice major Ending Diagonal #HZupdates
#AUDUSD like #Oil and #USD and #Gold also flashes coming #disinflation or #deflation. The pair is balancing on LT-trend in a wave C which is likely to take us to ~0.5 in 2019. As I said - 2019 is going to be tough on world economy #HZupdates
#TLT does well during #disinflation #deflation and will also do well as Fed engages to fight deflation later in 2019. Hence, TLT will move much higher coming months/years. The callers of major low in yields will be proven wrong. Kondratiev's winter is over! #HZupdates
I posted this chart of #TLT and #SP500 some weeks ago and asked: "Maybe - we are just seeing #riskoff scenario unfolding". This updated view supports that #HZupdates. Lower levels in US500 and higher levels in TLT ahead.
#Riskoff environment is first created by the strength of USD=Deflationary=Wave A. As Fed enters we will likely see a bounce, which can last many months 2019/20 = Wave B.. However, as commodities bottoms, but economy slumps, equities will take another beating in wave C #HZupdates
Japanese stock market was in major Bear Market since 1989. However, EW seems to suggest, that major bottom was in by 2008 - and that a new major bull is unfolding. BUT - we are in wave 2 of this new Bull and hence will see lower levels (yellow) before Bull continues #HZupdates
All around the world, stock indices look terrible. We have a major #bear market - but few places look as bad as in the #EU. The rally since 2008 has been bounce in major bear. We now have break of trend channel - and will see much lower levels. Much pain ahead in EU #HZupdates
The pain in #EU is going to be felt in #Germany. All during 2018, I have called this a very scary chart. I still do. We are likely to see much lower levels for #DAX before final bottom. My LT-target to be reached over coming 3-4 years is ~3500 #HZupdates
Another chart I have called scary during 2018 is #DeutscheBank. I called for much lower levels at yellow mark. We have major ENDING DIAGONAL. These often ends with undershooting of lower trendline. Dangerously close to 0! Bankrupt or Bailout? Either way = Troubles! #HZupdates
That is all from #HZupdates in 2018! Thank you for the follow and for great discussion on #FinTwit. 2019 is going to be difficult for world economy but will offer some fantastic opportunities! I will try to keep you updated here and offer more detailed insight on my Whatsapp list
I have just sent out my last Weekly Update to subscribers. If you want to receive this please transfer 75 EUR to Remember your Whatapp no in Comments field! I will forward asap! Please DM me for subscription details to my Whatsapp list #HZupdates
Happy New Year to all! 🙂Remember true value is found in family and friends! Kind regards from Copenhagen, Denmark #HZupdates
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