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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
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Very geekish thread related to UK becoming an independent WTO member

Now published: reactions to the proposal for splitting EU28 WTO tariff-rate quotas (TRQs = limited quantities of imports allowed duty-free or lower than normal duty).

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/pri…
1/24
The EU (&UK) propose taking the quotas for EU28 imports, splitting them into UK and EU27 portions according to how much ended up in each, on average in 2013–15.

The result for the EU27 is here: eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?…

The figures for the UK would be EU28 minus EU27.
2/24
These would be part of the UK’s & EU’s commitments on goods in the WTO.

Objections raised in Geneva include about the overall approach, the data for determining how much currently ends up in the UK and EU27, and the 2013–15 period (3 years immediately before the referendum)
3/24
The EU has invited comment. These have now been published here:

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

This thread looks briefly at each.

EU farmers unions broadly support the approach. Exporters and EU importers oppose it

4/24
EUROPEAN SUGAR REFINERIES ASSOCIATION — don’t split the quotas

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

5/24
CANADA — opposes method, still too much uncertainty

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

6/24
URUGUAY — opposes method, questions data and base period

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

7/24
MEAT & LIVESTOCK AUSTRALIA — opposes method, questions data. seeks clarity about Brexit arrangements

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

8/24
PARAGUAY — Challenges legal approach, seeks information on the process, expects outcome will not “nullify nor impair” its access to the EU and UK

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

9/24
BRAZIL — EU28 commitments are for EU as an “indivisible” single entity, single market, so splitting quotas is unjustified. Many other objections or questions.

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

10/24
NEW ZEALAND — EU27 shouldn’t amend EU28 quotas, UK’s position is questionable, no hurry since the UK is staying in the customs union through the transition

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

11/24
DAIRY COMPANIES ASSOCIATION OF NEW ZEALAND — full range of objections

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

12/24
BEEF + LAMB NEW ZEALAND AND THE MEAT INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION OF NEW ZEALAND — unacceptable approach, and too hasty

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

13/24
STARCH EUROPE A.I.S.B.L — Calls for Thailand’s manioc starch quota to be included

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

14/24
INTERNATIONAL MEAT TRADE ASSOCIATION (UK) — disagrees with approach for splitting quotas without adjusting overall quantities, questions data

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

15/24
AUSTRALIA — concern about value of concessions, data. Calls for EU to use transition period and consider current strain on WTO

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

16/24
EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PROCESSORS (PROFEL) — Supports some quotas, questions figure for agaricus mushrooms and seeks smaller quotas for canned fruit

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

17/24
ARGENTINA — opposes method, asks about UK-EU trade in the quotas

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

18/24
INTERNATIONAL BEEF ALLIANCE — opposes method, questions haste

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

19/24
EPEGA (poultry meat importers) — EU27 keep unchanged quotas, UK negotiates new ones

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

20/24
COPA & COGECA — Supports the EU and UK approach including possible unilateral apportionment

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

21/24
NATIONAL FARMERS’ UNION — supports EU approach, flexible on base period

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

22/24
DEUTSCHER BAUERNVERBAND German Farmers Association (DBV)

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

23/24
(via Google translate)
SPIEGELEER CONSULTING — must include quotas in bilateral agreements too, base on real trade

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

24/24
(via Google translate) (one more ...)
ANONYMOUS (FRANCE) — EU27 quotas should be based on actual imports even if quotas unfilled

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…

(via Google translate)

P.S./ends Enjoy the weekend! 😇
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

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This article by ⁦@CoppetainPU⁩ reflecting on the quality of dialogue regarding Brexit, & the first casualty: the truth.

We Remainers must be careful not to pick “bad arguments” inaccurate information about trading on WTO terms.

Plenty good ones! politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
In fact my experience of Remainers is they are keen to get facts right.

BUT it’s v.easy for an error to gain traction at the expense of perfectly sound arguments located elsewhere.

Can we knock on the head that we cannot trade without full agreement from all 160+ WTO countries?
The better argument is we may struggle to win trade from a country in dispute with us over - say- Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) such as NZ lamb. They want to be able to export more to us tariff free (competitive edge for them).

Disputes also mean that we are trading at risk.
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