Support +11 from 31% to 42% since April 2017
Oppose -8 from 48% to 40%
So @yougov have narrow plurality (+2) in favour for first time.
Splits Remain 66-21 (+45) & Leave voters 19-66 (-47)
But another Brexit referendum in 2019 remains extremely unlikely.
A Commons vote in Oct/Nov would not give enough time to legislate, then organise (designate campaigns) & hold campaign & vote March 30th 2019
But the Article 50 timetable could be extended (if UK-EU agree).
About 100 MPs support a referendum now.
Adding +200 impossible without Jeremy Corbyn & Labour frontbench, yet it would remain v.difficult even with them on board too
But might a majority for a referendum arise in a No Deal scenario? Also unlikely.
- A transition deal/period in EEA more likely than referendum
- Labour MPs would much rather try to trigger a general election than a referendum.
* 'Remain v No Deal' referendum is most winnable one for Remain
- A fairly crazy referendum to hold (eg markets).
- Prob need a pro-Remain govt first!
That would be a 'courageous' risk for a new PM (even if he were not a lifelong Eurosceptic). Something else (eg EEA) much more likely
(a) who in this Commons creates a majority vote this Autumn for a 2019 referendum
or (b) how/why a new government comes to call a referendum next year.
- Prospect of 'no deal' is a driver of support.
- In past polls, stating 'Remain' would be an option narrows support for a referendum. So does calling it a '2nd referendum'.
Anand Menon is persuasively sceptical