Trump's famous unpredictability now enters his Iran policy. He says he wants to meet Rouhani without preconditions. Pompeo then rushes out to list a series of preconditions. The trouble, if you are an ally of the United States, is: who do you believe? 1/6
Trump's record on such summits, which he prefers be improvisational, rather than well-prepared, raises concerns. In Singapore, he praised Kim & spontaneously canceled military exercises with SK. Then he claimed no more NK nuclear threat, which US intel says is not the case. 2/6
In Helsinki, he met alone with Putin, against his advisers' wishes, then declared he believed Putin's denials about Russian interference in US elections more than the US intel community's consensus. If he pressed Putin to expel Iran from Syria, it's clear he made no progress. 3/6
So it's hard to know what would come out of a Trump-Rouhani mtg. If the policy is to build maximum pressure through sanctions, it's better to allow more time for the economic crisis in Iran to deepen. That's the only (remote) chance Iran would agree to a tougher nuclear deal. 4/6
I assume that will be Israel's advice. Saudi and UAE as well. And I assume that is the reason Pompeo rushed to amend Trump's statement. Odds are that Khamenei will reject the meeting anyway for ideological reasons. But a clever Iranian play might be to draw Trump into talks. 5/6
Because if Trump actually gets in a room with the Iranians, God only knows what could happen. Certainly his advisers and America's allies don't know. 6/6
