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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This analysis by sociologist Michael Burrage misses one major point (and several others).

First, being outside the EU and growing, is incomparable with being integrated, breaking away, and facing lots of new tariff and non-tariff barriers. It's no-shock versus shock.

1/4
Imagine California breaking away from the US, trading with it via normal US WTO tariffs and non-tariff barriers. It would look across the Pacific for its trading relations, and lose all US free trade agreements including NAFTA. Would there really be no adjustment, no shock?

2/4
Burrage also doesn't break down the impact into winners & losers.

Here's a critique of a paper he produced last year: infacts.org/boris-johnson-…

3/4 Screenshot of paragraph describing Burrage's approach as dubious
Here's a better analysis of frictionless trade and the WTO option by the Institute for Government. It's detailed, but a "research group" ought to be able to manage 44-page paper.

Costs, benefits, adjustment ...

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/f…

4/4 Screenshot of final paragraph of summary, calling for the government to understand the costs and benefits to business, to be realistic about the speed of adjustment, and publish analysis so there can be an informed debate
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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

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An interesting must-read historical account that misses one essential point that several commentators keep failing to understand (short thread)
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