So a couple of reflections from two days discussing @irishborder on here, before I bravely run away for the day...1/
Obviously there's no goodwill towards the UK government position on here from Ireland. None whatsoever. Probably reflects the general opinion. Well understood, there's plenty of reasons for it (how far do you want to go back?)... 2/
Equally I suspect therefore a large number have a very hard line position on negotiations - Northern Ireland backstop must be there, and the UK will back down over this. We can de-dramatise, that's enough 3/
I think that's highly risky, I am not convinced the UK government will back down on the Northern Ireland backstop, if anything this could provide the excuse for saying no-deal is how it has to be. That is already what some ERG voices say 4/
So then the question is whether one can put aside the ill-feeling to reach a deal, initially a short-term deal, then something longer term given more time. Not easy. But could be done, without breaking EU. Would need some UK movement. 5/
As someone rightly said the EU probably wouldn't want to offer anything before conservative party conference, as this is hardly going to be a constructive environment. But perhaps straight afterwards? 6/
The point I have made most frequently. It really can't be in the EU or Ireland's long term interest to have a resentful angry UK or GB as a neighbour. Saying 'who cares, your fault' back to that is understandable feeling, but unhelpful 7/
Final thought, it isn't comfortable right now to engage publicly on behalf of UK politicians who have done such a lousy job so far in negotiations. But then if they'd done a better job I wouldn't need to engage in this way. 8/
The message I discuss here, that UK political opinion doesn't like the Northern Ireland backstop, is simply that, a message. From someone analysing the negotiations. Don't shoot the messenger. Even on twitter. Debate. 9/
I'm an optimist, I think there will be a deal which will be acceptable to all parties in time for March. Then we'll have a lot of work to do rebuilding any kind of trust. We're all in for a hard slog. 10/ ends
