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Rob Ford @robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Reporting bias in real time. Europe elects put out two polls on Sweden election almost simulatenously. Already, after an hour we can see a pattern:

YouGov - Sweden Dems 25 (+1) 1st place - 30 RTs, 38 likes
Inzio - Sweden Dems 17 (-1) 3rd place - 8 RTs, 11 likes

3:1 ratio...
Lets see how the bias towards SD friendly poll develops over time. If you want to play along at home, here the links to the two tweets:

YouGov:



Inzio:

Incidentally, the poll averages overall, and the trends from most individual pollsters, suggests Sweden Dems have been declining for much of the past month. Which is one reason this kind of reporting bias can lead people astray. See here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…
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Insightful stuff from Stephen as usual. People’s Vote campaign still haven’t figured out good message to win the referendum they campaign for. One problem imo is the one @hugorifkind identified today - Remainers have gone Conan and are more interested in venting than persuading
Imagine a horde of #fbpe types descending on the nations doorsteps to explain to joe public that he is a racist moron duped by Russians into blaming all his problems on the immigrants who keep this country running, who has now been given a golden opportunity to reverse his error.
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OK, time for my 2019 predictions thread....
1. Brexit. I have very low confidence in this, given the huge uncertainty and wide range of options but here goes:
We will go right to the edge of the A50 deadline, maybe even a little past it, but in the end May's deal will get voted through after an absolutely awful March
May's deal has two advantages - it starts with a large pool of votes, and it requires less steps to achieve than any of the other options.
With both Lab and Cons unwilling to co-ordinate on an alternative, and unwilling to work with the Other Side despite internal divides...
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Will do a thread of 2019 predictions tomorrow. First, a thread on things I got wrong in 2018. 1/?
Starting with the question which consumed us in Britain in 2018: Brexit. A year ago, my expectation was that we would have secured and voted through a deal by this point in time. The deal would pass at the second or third time of asking, with Labour votes to overcome ERG rebels.
3/? Not where we are of course. What did I get wrong? Several things, I think. I underestimated the size and inflexibility of the "no deal is better than a bad deal" faction in the Parl Cons. And underestimted the willingness of govt to take us right to the edge of No Deal
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