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Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
, 8 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A summary of today in Brexit:

1/
May's rightly pointed out the red lines on both sides, but hasn't got a solution other than the one she had before

2/
So doubling-down was the only real option for her

3/
Importantly, she didn't escalate matters by suspending negotiations or the like.

Path to a deal requires that this is all put behind the parties

4/
Among the rhetoric, UK is still coming back with some new proposals, EU is still happier to have a poor proposal than no proposal at all, and May remains easily the biggest fan of Chequers

5/
So, in summary, nothing has changed

Which is both good and bad

6/
Good, because Salzburg could have spiralled out of control

Bad, because none of this addresses the gaps in Art.50 negotiations right now

7/
tl;dr more political crisis management, still not enough strategic activity

/end
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More from @Usherwood see all

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A quick thread on one key reason why the UK gvt is getting tangled up over Brexit:

1/
You'll have noticed a pattern in gvt actions over the months: a decision is made, then shortcomings/gaps are found, so new decisions are made, which also don't quite work, and none of them provide blanket resolutions

2/
This has been so both in the Art.50 negotiations themselves and in the no-deal contingency planning

3/
Read 17 tweets
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A quick run-through of how the EU has dealt with non-approval of treaties, just, you know, in case:

1/
I'll start by noting this very useful book by @dermot_hodson and Imelda Maher, who are very much worth reading on this

2/
In short, the EU doesn't like re-opening texts, so failures to approve result in efforts to give the non-approver enough political space to accept the same legal text

3/
Read 19 tweets
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For all your keen types who didn't take this week off too, a couple of things to keep in mind over the weekend:

1/
Next week is the return of Parliament (and all those holidaying people, bah), so Sunday is going to give an early indicator of who's out to make the running on the Meaning Vote

2/
On gvt side, how senior a figure gets wheeled out to make the case for? Probably not the top level (save them for next w/e), but can they find someone with an air of genuine enthusiasm for it all?

3/
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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1) Why Labour #Brexit Conference policy is flawed

Unfortunately Ben is wrong here, Corbyn is following the agreed policy here because that policy let's him do exactly what he wants on Brexit, not what the members want

The policy is a well crafted stitch up
2) there's 2 consistent themes from Corbyn supporters
a) this is the policy Labour conference overwhelmingly supported
b) Corbyn's following that policy to the letter
Both of these are true, but neither stand up to critical examination if we're being honest
3) in terms of the first "this is the policy conference supported" well, as a remainer its essentially the same as the non meaningful vote May tried to create
May's choice was her deal or no. Deal which, if true, is no deal at all
It was the same with Labour conference policy
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Today’s bit of trade wisdom is on the importance of imports. Because the longstanding talking point of “they sell more to us than we to them” is still around and - wherever you stand on #Brexit - it has to go. Short thread. @CharlieElphicke
@CharlieElphicke Point 1: imports are necessary for industry. Why is that? We live in the age of global value chains. What does that mean? Products are made from parts that come from all over. SMMTP’s latest statistics say only 44% of the stuff British cars are made of is actually from the UK.
@CharlieElphicke If you eliminate the imports, you have to replace them. Some can be replaced at higher costs, others might not. You put the industry at risk. At worst: you kill it.
Read 8 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Today, @CER_EU publishes my piece on #Brexit and #JHA. I have been looking at this for 1,5 years so I hope I did not make too many mistakes (links to piece - cer.eu/publications/a… and opens thread)
At the outset of the #Brexit process, most people assumed that a deal on #police and #judicial co-operation was easier to get than one on #trade. Time has shown this is not the case. Ongoing co-op on #JHA is one of the few items yet to be agreed on #withdrawal deal. Why?
Well, because the #EU and #UK's opening positions in the #negotiation are incompatible: Britain wants a #bespoke agreement with the EU, a la #Schengen, but is not willing to accept #ECJ or #EUCharter. EU wants to replicate existing models. What to do?
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #customsunion #stopbrexit #US #NI #Lab18 #EuropeanParliament #Windrush #EEA #nodealbrexit #FundamentalRights #Netherlands #border #brexit #Trump #FinalSay #EUCharter #police #A50 #economy #enforcement #Europol #PeoplesVote #Britain #Denmark

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