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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"If you’re an equity investor, all the hectoring has probably left you frazzled, staring anxiously at fixed-income markets for early signs of the apocalypse." More like: "If you're an idiot investor..." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Prophesies of doom are everywhere....worst two-day tumble since May." Two days!

If you want some actual intelligence listen to the Barry Ritholtz interview of Howard Marks. bloomberg.com/news/audio/201… or read 25IQ tomorrow. You decide.
In this Bloomberg interview with Howard Marks you learn his mantra continues to be, “move forward, but with caution," that the cycle is in the 8th innining but it could go beyond 9 innings, that he isn't a Fed watcher but anticipates interest rates going into the 3's, but not 4.
"There are two risks in investing. The risk of losing money, and the risk of missing opportunity. You can eliminate either one, but it puts your firmly in the crosshairs of the other. How should you balance? Today is a time to overweight defense.” MArks google.com/amp/s/www.yaho…
"Investors should favor strategies and approaches that emphasize limiting losses in declines above ensuring full participation in gains. Just about everything in the investment world can be done either aggressively or defensively. This a time for caution" google.com/amp/s/www.mark…
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More from @trengriffin see all

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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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1/
VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
2/
Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
3/

So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
Read 10 tweets
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This post, please, please read. This is what critical self-reflection and acting with intention and humility re: issues of #equity and racism can look like. Some highlights in this thread (but please read the whole thing) 👇🏾

@SchleiderJustin TY for your words & honesty. /1
"My children will be surrounded almost entirely by kids and adults who look and act like them. They will be educated during their most formidable years in a way that normalizes whiteness. Makes it the default.This will cause them irreparable harm." -@SchleiderJustin /2
"Yes, being raised in an all-white environment harms white people. We shut ourselves off from the humanity of others because we are not in the position of connecting with people who don’t look and act like us. This harms our souls." -@SchleiderJustin /3
Read 6 tweets
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Are you ready for this one?
linkedin.com/feed/news/sala…
Salary question is being ditched
Your next interview may be one question shorter as cities, states and territories around the U.S. stop asking, “How much did you make in your last job?” The question is being banned in an
effort to eliminate gender wage disparities, reports Business Insider. California, Oregon, Delaware, Massachusetts, New York City, Philadelphia and Puerto Rico outlawed employers from inquiring about a candidate’s salary history, Business Insider said. New Orleans and Pittsburgh
put in place similar bans for hiring city workers. An embargo in Maryland is in the works, but not in Illinois, where Governor Bruce Rauner vetoed the proposal. Michigan and Wisconsin have also prohibited salary history question bans, Bloomberg said. •
Read 5 tweets
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Early signs of multi-family credit stress may be a thing. Anyone else seeing this?
Multi-family credit has been as good as it gets for the last few years. We may be starting to see a reversion to the mean
h/t @rcwhelan
theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/single-post/20…
Moar multi-family credit termites
#CMBS
Read 8 tweets
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Early Signs of Trouble - A History of #WhiteSupremacy at First Baptist Church (Dallas).

How a #Dallas church with a history of oppposing civil rights for African Americans formed a long and toxic relationship with the Republican Party. #maga #blackconservatives #BlackTwitter
“In 1956, the Supreme Court had recently struck down school segregation in the Brown v. Board of Education case. President Eisenhower had sponsored sweeping civil rights legislation.”
Dr. King was organizing bus boycotts. Pressure was building against segregation across the South. At that time, there may have been no more influential figure in the Southern Baptist Convention than W.A. Criswell, the pastor of the enormous First Baptist Church in Dallas.
Read 26 tweets
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#Thread #Equity: It is difficult to shake off #privilege. Difficult. And it is even harder to explain it to those who enjoy it.
I see so many men writing posts about sharing responsibilities at home, being participatory fathers, not dominating women etc.
This is great. So many are becoming "woke" and we must celebrate it. But here's the flip side and herein lies privilege.
Read 26 tweets

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