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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Trump approval (which has been getting better for the GOP) and the generic ballot (which has been getting worse) have now converged. We have Trump approval at -9.6 in all polls or -8.0 in polls of LV/RV only. GOP is down 8.4 on the generic ballot. 53eig.ht/2miOCCq
There's little doubt that Trump bears some responsibility for the very high levels of Democratic enthusiasm. Even in the NBC/WSJ poll, which had Trump at a relatively good overall number, 43% percent of voters *strongly* disapproved of him vs. 30% who strongly approved.
With that said, there's a case here that the GOP can't just blame Trump for its problems in the House. Health care is the No. 1 issue, and that's not really a Trump thing. Kavanaugh—although it's still not 100% clear how that's resonating—not really a Trump-centric issue either.
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
Read 3 tweets
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
Read 3 tweets

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#Trump's last campaign rally of the 2018 mid-term election season is scheduled to start in about ten minutes. It's his THIRD rally of the day. Dude is likely exhausted and I doubt this rally will be less "speech" and more "incoherent tirade".
At any rate, here's the thread for it! Follow/mute at will!
Current Pre-show music is the Rolling Stones' "Sympathy for the Devil." I couldn't make this up if I tried.

#Trump #Truprally
Read 44 tweets
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NE02, final. Bacon 51, Eastman 42
A good result for Republicans, though not a huge surprise in a lean Rep. district. Still, this could have been a top race and it doesn't look like one.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
As an aside, I believe this is the first race where Republicans have beaten @Redistrict expectations in 12 days, and they only did it by a net-2 points
Washington 8, final. Schrier (D) 46, Rossi (R) 45
America's greatest district posts our second closest result yet, trailing only Kentucky 6
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 74 tweets
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🔥Internal @GOP poll shows Democrats up by 9 points on a generic ballot (7 pts = #FlipTheHouse). “Soft" GOP voters care more about Medicare/SS, veterans mental health services + reforming student loans than Trump agenda of tax cuts, border walls, ICE.😉

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🤣LOL. @realDonaldTrump’s GASLIGHTING worked a bit too well.

Complacency among #GOP voters is tied directly to their trust in Trump. “They don’t believe Democrats will win the House. (Why should they believe the same pollsters who told them Hillary was going to be elected?)”🤣
This #poll shouldn’t make *any* of us complacent, but instead, should MOTIVATE us, b/c we now *know* that We the People *can* flip seats in DEEPLY red states (@DougJones in #AL) and districts (@ConorLambPA).

VOTE, so that we do this NATIONWIDE‼️🇺🇸

Read 3 tweets
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Democrats Fight #GOP Culture of Corruption to Make Washington Work for the People/1 #VoteBlue2018 #Midterms #Democrats #DemsWork4USA #WhyIVoteDemocrat It’s a vintage button with a donkey kicking an elephant saying “Kick out Depression with a Democratic Vote”
This week’s indictment of #GOP Congressman Chris Collins shines a stark light on the rampant culture of corruption and self-enrichment among #Republicans in Washington today/2 #Collins #CorruptGOP #SwampThings
..and the story continues to widen as reporters unearth at least six other #GOP current and former Members of Congress who have recently owned or sold stock in Innate Immunotherapeutics, the Australian company at the center of the arrest of Rep. Collins./3 #GOPCORRUPT #Collins
Read 20 tweets
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#LV IMO SP & the gun running/sales scenario gone bad is a distraction. I doubt much in 135 is true. I doubt anything was really done there. It was for show only. What might really have happened is...
2) that the venue was built and named several years ago for a ritual blood sacrifice conducted by the Saudi Prince Alwaleed, a suspected Satanist & pedophile. He partnered with Bill Gates in buying the top floors of the MB & called it The Four Seasons.
3) Some weeks before the massacre on 1 Oct 2017, the Saudi Air Force spent about a week conferencing or training in LV. Alwaleed, this week, has been reported as saying, he arranged for SAAF snipers to do the kills at the 91 venue. He reportedly said Bill Gates knew abt it.
Read 30 tweets
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#Trump was not elected president because he did not win the electoral vote via @RealTimBlack #TimBlackShow #Resist
#Trump used the same trick as George W did in Florida. By removing voters of color in 28 states, Trump supposedly won the electoral college.
#Trump is not our legitimate president, rather he's the Commander-in-Thief! via @RealTimBlack #TimBlackShow #Resist
Read 29 tweets

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