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Andrew S. Weiss @andrewsweiss
, 19 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
How's the Kremlin reacting to Trump's foolish withdrawal from the #INFTreaty? Three of Russia's sharpest strategic minds--Andrei Kortunov, @DmitriTrenin & Alexei Arbatov weigh in…,…,…
Kortunov: "[R]emoving the centrality of strategic arms control not only deprives the U.S.-Russia relationship of its special status in global politics, but also drastically reduces both countries’ importance to one another." 2/
Kortunov: "If the U.S. and Russia are no longer willing to give up 1 or 2 types of delivery vehicles, what can they rightfully ask of other members of the int'l community? It is quite possible that the next nuclear nonproliferation Review Conference will also be the last one." 3/
Kortunov: "Strategic arms control as it has been known for almost half a century since Leonid Brezhnev and Richard Nixon signed the first agreement is coming to its logical end." 4/
Kortunov: "The Trump admin’s destructive steps have simply accelerated & added more drama to the inevitable demise of arms control. Irrespective of who is occupying the White House, it is no longer possible for Moscow and Washington to return to the 1970s or even to 2010." 4/
Kortunov: "It is possible that instead of traditional bilateral regimes like INF and New START, future agreements will favor more flexible, multilateral formats like that of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Such a format, however, does not guarantee more durability." 5/
Kortunov: "Since the U.S. is unlikely to make multilateral strategic arms control its top priority any time soon, Russia can take advantage of the present lack of competition and make the first move." 6/
Trenin: "In and of itself, the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty doesn’t create any immediate problems for Russia. What’s more important is what steps the United States will take following this decision, and in which theaters of operations it will act." 7/
Trenin: "In the event of a significant increase in the military threat, Moscow should proportionally increase the threat vs U.S. territory. It’s not in Russia’s best interest to respond to the U.S. by punishing its allies. Russia’s efforts shouldn’t strengthen NATO’s unity." 8/
Trenin: "Moscow doesn’t have to blindly follow the United States. Getting involved in another U.S.-imposed arms race and undermining its relations with third countries is not in Russia’s best interests." 9/
Trenin: "Moscow needs to remain calm and hold back emotions. U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty won’t compromise Russia’s security, which rests on the pillars of nuclear deterrence and mutually assured destruction." 10/
Arbatov (English trans forthcoming): "Aside from the direct damage that it will do to Russia’s security, U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty risks triggering a chain reaction resulting in the collapse of the U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control architecture." 11/
Arbatov: Should the INF treaty meet its demise, the New START Treaty may join it in the dustbin of history as may the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)." 12/
Arbatov: "The world faces a new offensive nuclear arms race, complemented by a contest over offensive and defensive non-nuclear strategic systems and the development of space and cyber weapons." 13/
Arbatov: "This multidimensional arms race could easily become multilateral, drawing in China, NATO member-states, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea." 14/
Arbatov: "[A]n inevitable proliferation of nuclear weapons will be concentrated along Russia’s borders, with Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan forced to ensure their own security." 15/
Arbatov: "Although it is frequently criticized in Russia, the INF Treaty is more important for the country’s security today than it was thirty years ago." 16/
Arbatov: "[T]he U.S. will resume deployment of intermediate-range nuclear forces—not in Western Europe, as in the past, but in Poland, the Baltic States, and Romania, from which they will be able to strike beyond the Urals." 17/
Arbatov (end of English preview): "This will force Moscow to commit significant resources to increasing the survivability of its nuclear forces and their control systems, all at a time when Russia’s economic situation is necessitating defense cuts." END/
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