Thread by @djjohnso

Let's go through this list from 538 race by race to show why polling is saying "even race" not Dem blowout, shall we?

1/ CA-48 (216 on list): 4 poll in last ~week (538 misses one in its projection). +2, +4, +9.1 GOP. NYT/Siena in field: +3 Dem.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1058730542328373249

2/ CA-25 (217 on list): NYT/Siena ending October 28. GOP +4.

3/ ME-2 (218 on list): four polls in October ...
Pan Atlantic: R+0.5
Global Strategy (D): D+6
NYT/Siena: Even
Emerson: D+1.1
Average: D+1.65

4/ MI-8 (219): (all polls here on out in field Oct. 1 or later)
Siena/NYT (early Oct): +4 GOP
Target: +3 GOP
Siena/NYT (in field): +2 Dem

5/ KS-2 (220)
Emerson: +7 GOP
Change: +1 GOP
NYT/Siena: +4 Dem

6/ NJ-3 (221)
National Research: +4 GOP
Stockton: +1.4 GOP
Monmouth: +4 Dem
NYT/Siena: +1 GOP

7/ CA-39 (222)
Tulchin: +1 D
NYT/Siena: +1 D

8/ NY-22 (223)
Polling Co (R): +8 R
Siena (-NYT): +1 D
Siena/NYT: +2 R

9/ UT-4 (224)
Mellman (D): +1 D
U Utah: E
Dixie: +6.5 D
NYT/Siena: E
AVERAGE: +1.875 D

10/ MN-1 (225)
Survey USA: +2 D

11/ NC-9 (226)
Survey USA: +4 D
NYT/Siena (early Oct): +5 R
NYT/Siena (late Oct): +1 R

12/ KY-6 (227)
Garin-Hart-Young (D): +7 D
POS (R): +2 R
NYT/Siena (in field): +2 R
AVERAGE: +1 D

13/ FL-26 (228)
GBA (D): +2 D
Mason Dixon: +1 R
NYT/Siena: +1 D

14/ TX-7 (229)
NYT/Siena: +1 R

15/ VA-7 (230)
CNU: +2 D
NYT/Siena: +1 R

16/ NM-2 (231)
Tarrance (R): +7 R
Siena/NYT: +1 R
Emerson: +0.4 D
Carroll: +5 R

17/ PA-1 (232)
Monmouth: +4 R
POS (R): +8 R
NYT/Siena (mid Oct): +7 D
Target (R): +4 D
NYT/Siena (late Oct): +1 R
AVERAGE: 0.4 R

18/ FL-16 (233)
five polls: Even (D), Even, Even, +7 R (R), +6 R (R)

19/ NC-13 (234)
NYT/Siena: +6 R
Survey USA: +3 R

20/ OH-12 (235)
Clarity (D): +2 R
GBA (D): E

21/ IL-14 (236)
NYT/Siena (early oct): +4 R
NYT/Siena (in field): +5 D

Other than adjusting the polls, heavily weighting them, using "fundamentals" to override the polling, there is NO WAY to say these polls show clear D win in House on Tuesday. Both sides should be nervous. But D's aren't winning the poll or average by more than 2% in any of them!

Now remember, for FiveThirtyEight to be bang on its prediction on Tuesday (currently a Dem pick-up of 38 seats), Democrats need to sweep ALL but THREE of these races (they aren't leading clearly in polling in any of them) or win races further down the list to make-up for losses.