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Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1
, 11 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
People keep asking me about the Democrats doing well recently in #earlyvoting because they are catching up in my "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016." This isn't true. The Dems are not doing well. Let me explain...
#MAGA #election2018
If the Republicans do 10 points better than the Dems in the "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016" in the first million votes but then the Reps and Dems tie in the second million, the result moves from R+10% to R+5%.
#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting
That doesn't mean the Dems did better. In fact, the Republicans help their lead. But with a larger denominator, the Republicans no longer have the same percentage gain despite having the same nominal gain.
#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting
This is exactly what we've seen. Republicans came out very strong (R+4.3%) in the first days of #earlyvoting. Since then, Reps have continued (most days) to get more votes relative to 2016 but the %age has declined as the Rep margins decreased.
#MAGA #election2018
In other words, Republicans won early #earlyvoting by huge margins, then they won the middle days by smaller margins, and more recent days have been about even.
#MAGA #election2018
What does this say about which party is more "energetic"? Is the more energetic party the one that came out early to vote? Or the one that procrastinated?
#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting
Moreover, would you rather be the party that has improved their #earlyvoting share since 2016? Or the party that is doing worse?
#MAGA #election2018
One more thought on this thread:
What if in the end the #earlyvoting results look the same as they did in 2016? Well, 2016 was a great year for the GOP, winning the presidency and 241 House seats. That doesn't sound so bad and certainly no #bluewave.
#MAGA #Election2018
Dems always catch up a little at end of #earlyvoting. I predicted they would this year too. But I also predict that Reps will finish more than 1.0% better than 2016, equal to ~200k added votes. I won't call that an insurmountable gain, but it's close to one.
#MAGA #Election2018
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