THREAD: SECTORAL DEEP DIVE - BUILDINGS IN 2030
Wednesday I posted an overview of some of the key energy data highlights for 2030 in the @EU_Commission's newly released EU 'Long Term Strategy'. Today I want to take a closer look at 'Buildings Sector'. 1/
Wednesday I posted an overview of some of the key energy data highlights for 2030 in the @EU_Commission's newly released EU 'Long Term Strategy'. Today I want to take a closer look at 'Buildings Sector'. 1/
So to begin, what is the 'Buildings Sector'? Well if you intuitively answered, anything relating to buildings, you would be indeed correct. It's that simple. With one important caveat you will need to understand to make sense of this thread. 2/
In energy and climate statistical data we differentiate between the 'residential sector' (ie. households/non-commercial buildings) and the 'services sector', which includes buildings related to trade and market services, but also public buildings and agriculture. 3/ 
When we speak of the 'Buildings' one can mean a subset of buildings types. When one speaks of the 'Buildings Sector', this should generally refer to the combination of both the 'residential' and the 'services' sectors. In this thread, I will try to look at both. 4/
Currently, the buildings sector has the highest energy consumption in the EU. Energy uses include heating & cooling, operation of appliances, water heating and cooking. More than 40% of natural gas and nearly two-thirds of electricity are consumed in buildings. 5/
In order to reduce and decarbonize energy consumption we will need to follow four interrelated strategies: 1) energy efficiency, 2) direct renewables (eg. solar thermal, geothermal), 3) decarbonized district heating & cooling and 4) electrification with decarbonized power. 6/
Let' start with the demand side. In Europe's residential building stock, 71% of all energy is used for space heating. Heat demand in buildings depends on the insulating properties of the building shell, which can improved by such measures as better insultation and windows. 7/
Thermal insulation is particularly important for improving energy efficiency in buildings. The key problem: currently, about 35% of the EU's buildings are over 50 years old and almost 75% were built before energy performance standards existed. 8/
Highly efficient new buildings built today will only represent 10-25% of stock in 2050. Up to 97% of buildings (i.e. all buildings built before 2010) need partial or deep renovation to comply with the long-term strategy ambition. 9/
This will imply a more than doubling of the renovation rate of the building stock by 2050, from the today observed 1%-1.5% yearly rate to at least 3% from now on. This may sound low, but is actually an enormous challenge, considering the many barriers to building renovation. 10/
Moreover, from 2021 onwards, all new buildings in the EU will have to be nearly zero-energy buildings (NZEBs), that is to say buildings that have very high energy performance and whose (limited) energy consumption is mostly covered by energy from renewable sources. 11/
To achieve this level of performance, NZEBs will have to combine the best of energy-efficiency and smartness, relying on energy-efficient envelope components, high-performance technical building systems, and smart technologies and ICT. 12/
Another key priority is efficient equipment, in particular the replacement of the most inefficient heating appliances with more efficient alternatives. These range from condensing boilers to heat pumps in combination with better controls and smarter packages of heaters. 13/
So how could energy demand in buildings evolve towards 2030 with current EU legislation? Due to the dominant role of heating & cooling, overall demand could decline by roughly 20% due to declining heating & cooling needs, despite increased use of appliances & lighting. 14/
How? 1) the improved thermal integrity of building shells through new more efficient buildings and renovation of old buildings. The model assumes that policies, will help remove the barriers to drive higher renovation rates and a higher depth of energy-related renovation. 15/
2) Upgrading of heating appliances to more efficient and performing ones. By 2030 it is estimated that the annual energy consumption from appliances could be reduced by 48% (vs 2015) with a share of electrical appliances (ie. mainly heat pumps) at 28%. 16/
Now for the supply-side. In terms of fuel switch from fossil fuels to carbon-neutral sources, the optimal supply option is determined by specific local circumstances, e.g. RES potentials, feasibility of district H&C, building stock, and especially heating needs. 17/
Today the most common technologies using direct renewable sources to deliver heating and cooling in buildings are solar thermal, geothermal and biomass. Electrification of heating in buildings to provide ambient energy through renewable powered heat pumps is also growing. 18/
District heating and cooling systems currently supply about 10% of EU's heating and cooling demand but there is a potential to expand them to supply 50% of the heat demand, with 25–30% of the heat potentially supplied using large-scale electric heat pumps. 19/
So how could energy supply in buildings evolve towards 2030 with current EU legislation? Commission modelling estimates that the share of renewables in heating and cooling (incl. ambient energy from renewably powered heat pumps) could increase from 19% (2015) to 32% (2030). 20/
The trend that emerges the strongest is that buildings will experience a rapid growth of electrification. The share of electricity in both residential and services buildings will increase rapidly towards 2030 to roughly 40% and 60%, respectively. 21/
It is clear that the electrification of space heating (esp. via heat pumps) is an important driver of these dynamics. The share of electricity in the residential and services sector is expected to rise to 14% and 29%, respectively, by 2030. 21/
With the higher penetration of electricity, and an overall reduction in demand, the consumption of other fuels declines accordingly (especially fossil fuels). These fuels are used only for heating purposes: space heating, water heating or cooking. 23/
Gaseous fuels (natural gas, biogas, e-gas and hydrogen) represents the bulk of remaining consumption, but declines from roughly 40% today to 31% by 2030. Importantly, e-gas and hydrogen use in buildings is also estimated to be nearly non-existent in buildings in 2030. 24/
Coal and oil both nearly disappear from the energy consumption in buildings. Meanwhile, direct renewable energy supply remains stable or shrinks slightly, with estimates of 5-6% distributed heat, 9% biomass, and marginal shares of solar thermal and geothermal heat in 2030. 25/
And now for the more readable version. @threadreaderapp please unroll.
