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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I agree entirely with the honourable MP that people need to be educated. In that spirit: short thread
1) the UK does not leave the EU because of UK law. It leaves under EU law, which the EU realises, of course. Art. 50 of the TEU means EU law ceases for the UK. The EU is powerless to stop this. So is UK Parliament with the only caveat of ordering the government to revoke notice
2) the honourable MP is entirely correct to state that armageddon is not upon us in a no-deal scenario. I do not think armies will gather for a battle for the endtimes. But a no-deal scenario does imply significant economic pain. Let me explain...
3) Trading on WTO terms is a signifcant step down from our current trading terms with our lagest trading partner - the EU. Here’s a report describing WTO law and comparing a bit to the status quo. I wrote the services part ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
4) If you think that’s too shallow and you need more info (or are interested why I claim to know anything about these things at all): here’s the best commentary on the GATT out there (yeah, true, also the only one, so also the worst). I edited it. amazon.de/WTO-Trade-Good…
5) And a short logical comment: if WTO terms were so good, why would we be keen to sign a trade agreement with anyone? The truth is: because those terms are better...
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This has impressively strange statements from all three speakers. So some simple facts (thread)
1) No unilateral extension of Art. 50. Extension requires all Member States and the UK to agree. That’s Art. 50(3) of the TEU
2) The other two speakers speculated about what it would take for other member states to agree. Yes, a game changer. But that’s certainly not a new government with a new negotiation plan from scratch. “We don’t like it, let’s start over” is not a likely option.
Read 4 tweets
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I do not have the time for a full analysis - but allow me to point out some obvious shortcomings. As one of the authors can and does claim particular WTO expertise, I will not be as forgiving as I am with people who have no prior experience. (Thread)
The document claims to give us 30 truths about leaving on WTO terms. Allow me to link it again here for your convenience: globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…
Let’s start easy: the introduction suggests that the backstop can be replaced by a full FTA. Easy. Tusk is willing to do it. This is wrong. 1) we cannot negotiate a full future relationship in 3 months 2) remember the sequencing we agreed to?
Read 34 tweets
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My new explanation of this is, if you want, a version of path-dependency. Let me explain (short thread)
I had an aha moment at a recent conference, where a very experienced politician said that the current deadlock could only be resolved by a referendum or a general election.
What I found surprising was the mention of a general election. When the audience pointed out that both major parties have the same problem that they are split by Brexit, he conceded rapidly that a GE does not hold out the prospect of help.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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For some of us, too, it /IS/ all men, or has BECOME all men. Saying “Not All Men,” then, is telling us our experience isn’t real, which— fun fact— makes you one of those men.

Instead — 👏🏼 ACTIONABLE ADVICE AHEAD 👏🏼 (thread)
Apologize for your gender (leave the part where you blame society for how you’re socialized until later— she may even bring it up herself! We know!), thereby acknowledging & validating her experience, and ask yourself or even her (!) How can I make THIS experience better?

E.g.
Hang on, I have to get a beer.

And dinner— it’s not /just/ bc of this thread! 🤣
Read 25 tweets
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It's not just Rolls Royce... Here's what we can conclude (short #thread):

theguardian.com/business/2018/…
1. Although no manufacturing jobs are being moved, the EU's aviation body will take the place of the CAA. Clearly this is a work transfer.

2. UK aviation companies are showing they lack confidence in the UK government to provide safeguards.

...
3. There is turbulence ahead as aerospace manufacturers weigh where to invest. They operate closely integrated supply chains, so expect them to move as one body.

4. Much depends what Rolls, Bombardier and Airbus do. They will take tens of thousands of jobs with them if they go.
Read 3 tweets
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Finally got time to map these across. This is one for EU Citizens in the UK. #Thread @The3Million

The Charter of Fundamental Rights (CFR) codifies a body of case law into a series of 50+ articles built ON TOP OF the European Convention on Human Rights.
The ECHR was built and ratified by convention in 1953. Way before the EU & is distinct from it. We are not losing the ECHR post-Brexit (thus, keeping the UK's HRA)

However, the CFR is tied into membership of the EU & is often the conduit by which the ECHR is activated.
And this is a problem. Since question LS the CFR hasn't answered yet, are points of case law (yet to be determined) not statute. The CFR codifies a number of key elements of legislation (including clarification) across a body of cases across all 28 member states.
Read 14 tweets
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Thread re Prime Minister on #BBCtoday @BBCr4today re #EU just now: she got her catchphrase in early and followed the classic media training advice 'repeat, repeat, repeat'. 3 years ago it was 'Long-term economic plan', now it is 'when we leave the EU free movement will end'
or 'when we leave the EU we will take back control of our money, our laws and our borders'. All of which is based on fallacy - claim of net out-flow of money has been demonstrated clearly many times, we elect our MEPs and the MPs who debate the EU regs and we have border controls
Astonishingly disdainful way she thinks of UK workers - they will be trained for the low skilled jobs currently done by people from EU27 countries, but we will still allow people in if they will have salary of £50k. She had no plan for immediate recruitment e.g. for care homes
Read 25 tweets
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This is gonna be long, but I think it's worth it. A well-regarded twitter poster, let’s call him Giorgio, has recently publish a thread stating among other things as follows. “The pathways to stopping or delaying Brexit are blocked.
But once the mandate is discharged, the pathways to UK rejoining, or being in a close association agreement with EU, within the single market and customs union, will be open, with no obstacles.”
This approach annoys me for two reasons, one because Giorgio seems to be attempting to cajole Remainers to put all activity on hold until we actually leave the #EU.
Read 17 tweets
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.@stephen501 is another #leave voter who wishes he had the chance to vote again now the facts of what #brexit means are becoming clear. Good on you for coming forward Stephen, you are one of millions, just need others to show the same humility! #remainernow #finalsay #fbpe
Here is more from Stephen following his visit to Germany. Highlights the ideologues lies that EU will give us a good deal as they need us more than we need them.
Here is another tweet from #remainernow @stephen501 after he regretted his leave vote he wrote to his MP. Hopefully he can also help persuade other leave voters he knows to do the same now #brexitreality is hitting!
Read 11 tweets

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