Thread by @lindsaypcohn

Hook: “We think that if working with everybody in the region, and if we construct our diplomacy the way we want to, that we will be able to get rid of all forces under Iranian control”

I know I should do analysis, but all I can do is laugh-cry at this. apple.news/AV0zHpPgjSxiCm…

Here are the major actors who have little/no problem w Iranian influence in Syria: Russia, Assad, Iraq, Hezbollah.
Actors who don’t want Iran in Syria: US, Israel, Saudi Arabia
Actors who don’t like it but could live w it if it gets them what they really want: Turkey, Kurds

Currently, the space is dominated by actors who don’t have a problem w Iran OR for whom it’s not a top priority.
The only way the US could get Iran out of Syria, therefore, would be to encourage some actor to enter the fray on the US’s behalf. Saudi Arabia probably won’t/can’t...

Leaving Israel, and while Israel might be happy to engage in Syria, they must know that that would create significant pressure w/i all the Arab states AND probably Iran to unite-ish against them.
Then you’re talking a general regional war, and some pretty ugly US options

Look, I would have handled Syria somewhat differently from the start, but if we’re going to pull out now, I think it has to be on the understanding that that most likely means reversion to the status quo ante, with significant Russian/Iranian influence.

What happens to the Kurds is another issue. If I’m Erdogan, I mainly want the fighting to be over bc I want the refugee problem to stop and the Kurds to be focused on rebuilding not fighting, but I also want to crush as many Kurds as possible before the fighting’s over.

If I’m the Kurds and the US leaves, I’m looking to make a deal w anyone who will agree not to kill me.
I think the Kurds have a window of opportunity to make a deal w Assad to help him v the Turkish-backed militias in exchange for some regional autonomy.

At that point, Russia/Iran should pressure Turkey to stop the fighting in exchange for a chance to repatriate all the Syrian refugees, as well as a guarantee to keep a lid on the Kurds. This is best case scenario for the Kurds, who are being screwed by the US’s behavior.

End result: Assad reconsolidates power w Russian/Iranian backing; Turks mostly get out of Syria and send the refugees back; Kurds in pretty precarious safety position but hopefully have Russian guarantees; Israel not happy and maybe does some bombing but nothing too provocative.

P.s. some have made the v good point that things have changed and maybe the other arab states wouldn’t get together against Israel at all bc they’d rather have ISR duke it out w Iran in Syr, weakening both of them. This is certainly a good possibility.

I still think the US shouldn’t rely on that as a plan, though, bc:
1) an ISR-Iran war would be really messy and prbly bring out more terrorist loonies
2) an ISR-Iran war in Syr has no equilibrium end-state. Any outcome throws off the regional balance and creates more conflict.