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Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
, 25 tweets, 25 min read Read on Twitter
Missiles launched over #Damascus; Rockets over the Golan Heights and a drone downed over #Israel: all in the last hour.

Israel said it is "an #Iranian drone". If that is the case, it is a "forced reconnaissance" to exhaust the Israeli defence system, #Hezbollah's style.
#Breakingnews:
#Israel F-16 downed by what seems to be #Syria air defence system
#BreakingNews: Private source
All Syrian military and intelligence and their allies (#Hezbollah) positions in #Syria and #Lebanon on full alert
Source:
#Israel recognition of downing an F-16 means Syria is on alert waiting for any Israeli violation, as is #Hezbolah and #Iran.

Would Israel be dragged to war? How #Russia will react in #Syria?

The front is very hot now.

#Israel changing version from "an #Iranian drone" to admit the downing of an F-16 was a first attempt to accuse #Tehran but later had to admit the reality showing a confusion in decision makers in the first hour.
#Syria is used to war as its leadership has been engaged in it fully for the last 6-7 years. Therefore #Damascus's Gov is ready for another front following the liberation of #ISIS last pocket in the north (except the one under #USA control).
Level of escalation in #Damascus response was a warning to #Israel that #TelAviv didn't take onboard. #Israel may limit itself bombing few Syrian positions from afar (flying over #Lebanon) or be dragged into escalation on a front from #Lebanon to #Syria
#Israel can't ignore the downing of its F-16, never happen in the last decades over #Syria and #Lebanon. Therefore what is important is the level of response: will the response bring a retaliation? If so, the long waited war may began.
This is a new Rule of Engagement and a new situation where #Israel is finding itself incapable of dominating the #Syria/n air space. It also shows #Damascus freedom (unlike many analysts believed) to respond regardless what #Russia's position is.
#Syria/n officials believe more than 1 F-16 were hit by its anti-Air missiles, showing the Syrian air-defence capability and the challenging attitude of #Damascus towards #Israel (not accepting the Israeli version of only 1 F-16 downed).
One conclusion:

The Sky over #Syria is no longer an #Israeli/i promenade and the Syrian Army is now ready for another confrontation. This blows up all (ridicules) assessment by analysts that "the Syrian Army stretched..., skinny..., few thousands only...)
#Israel admitted, indirectly, of the efficiency of the #Syrian Air-defence system by saying:"We study a retaliation". The question is and remain: How #Russia will behave? Allow #Israel to hit its Syrian ally and remain on the side? Or stop the escalation?
It is in the disadvantage of #Russia to see another war in #Syria on the southern front, with a #USA intervention, #Hezbollah #Iran the #Palestinians... all that may lead to a general war unless the Israeli response is limited.
#Hezbollah, on full alert in #Syria and #Lebanon, expected the reaction. Its leader Said Hasan Nasrallah warned to open a general war from Naqoura to the Golan Heights in the forthcoming war.
This escalation coincide with the approval of #Lebanon to start its oil exploration in Block 9.
Just a thought:

If this is a #Russian tit-for-tat, we could say that it is #Russia response to the downing of the Russian jet over #Idlib.

Russia accused the #USA of providing anti-air missiles to #AQ allies.
It is likely that #Damascus issues a communiqué to confirm its air defence fired the missiles against the F-16 hitting more than one jet to counter the #Israeli version claiming that #Iran is directly involved in this event.
#BreakingNews:
It seems #Israel warning Sirens blare in Northern #Israel over the Golan, the Galilee and the northern of Israel, closing the airspace over the north of Israel.
#BreakingNews:
A second #Israel/i air bombing against #Syria. #Damnascus open fire again against Israel Jets and Golan Heights positions. Siren over Israel continue. Escalation (for now).
#Breakingnews Source in Syria suggested Shahren anti sir system was used against the F-16, downing the Israeli jet over Israel sir space. The message said the source is : not even your air space is secure from now on
This is the end of it guys: #Israel decided to stand down and de-escalate. #Russia received & Israeli request to mediate to stop the escalation. Israel has lost the first battle against #Damascus when Syria was ready,after eliminating ISIS in central Syria
#Israel F-16 was above al-Sukhnah, east of Palmyra when #Syrian air defence fired 15 missiles against F-16 and to intercepted Israeli missiles fired against the Syrian Army position. This also show that Syria Air Defence is abundantly spread and efficient
#BreakingNews:
Commander in #Syria confirmed to me:
It was not an S-200 that hit the F-16. "It was a prepared ambushed". Read more tomorrow via @AlraiMediaGroup
The downing of an #Israel/i jet is giving a real boost to #Syria Pr. #Assad in the Islamic world among those anti-#USA/anti-Israel. Even if it is one single jet, it is widely believed a defeat of Israel's image and its almighty military power in the ME.
It doesn't mean Israel will stop hitting targets in #Syria but will think twice how to avoid being hit in the sky. Still it can't avoid #Syrian artillery retaliation when Israel violates Syria sovereignty.
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Related hashtags

#Damascus #Israel #Iranian #Hezbollah #BreakingNews #Syria #Lebanon #Hezbolah #Iran #Russia #Tehran #ISIS #USA #TelAviv #Israeli #Syrian #Palestinians #Russian #Idlib #AQ #Damnascus #Assad

More from @ejmalrai see all

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Ex-Nusra (#AQ rebranded HTS) walked into its own death by taking a large territory in #Idlib and its surrounding. The defeat of large groups like Ahrar and Souqourv al-Sham (who showed little resistance) and the elimination of Zinki group will have deadly consequences on AQ.+
No doubt #Turkey asked Ahrar et al to stand down & avoid fighting (for now). It means #Ankara would be happy to see the end of its presence in #Idlib on the long term. For this, Erdogan needs to see a very large battle taking place first in the north between these groups and #AQ
Erdogan & Putin will have a meeting soon to discuss the #Kurds and #AQ in #Idlib. I expect hot spring in Idlib and a large offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Mohammad al Joulani's ambition (from ex-ISIS emir to AQ Emir to ruler of Idlib) is helping to end this phenomena.
Read 6 tweets
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I can only see positiveness in the expansion of al-Qaeda in #Syria. The more cities and villages it controls, the faster it will lose.

#AQ in Syria is trying to earn the heart and minds of the locals but it is trying to full up their pockets. This group has learned nothing.
Today I am very confident & much more positive that #Turkey will not occupy north of #Syria and will not stay in the territory it occupies today for ever.

@RT_Erdogan is confirming his strategic relationship with #Russia & #Iran is more precious than #USA
#AQ was planning long ago to expand its control. #Turkey rejected Joulani's wishes for very long. By accepting or closing an eye on the ex-#ISIS Emir, i.e. Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, #Turkey has found the best way to liberate itself from al-Qaeda's burden.
Read 4 tweets
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Hay'yan, Anadan & Haritan under Jihadists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, the ex #ISIS officer, the ex-al Qaeda in the Levant and the actual leader of a large number of foreign fighters.

Joulani is taking position opposite #SAA.

google.com/maps/place/Hra…
Rural and the city of #Idlib, the rural area of #idlib, #Aleppo & #Hama are under Jihadists control. Is it time for the Syrian army, supported by #Russia to stop the jihadists advance if #Turkey is incapable of doing the job it has promised at #Astana?

#Turkey is embarrassed by Jihadists overwhelming control of most of the #Astana area of control. Joulani is forcing his place on #Ankara unless the Turkish army moves in to defeat him, or to steps aside and allows the #Syrian army to do the job.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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#Israel launched over 55 munitions today
Surface to surface missiles (short range-medium range)
Suicide drones
Small diameter bombs
Cruise missiles
Launched in 4 waves in 35 mins

And managed to hit 7 times in 2 different locations
On the other hand the #SAA launched over 60 missiles
With few malfunctions from the missiles (mostly from the soviet made system)
For the record
This Israeli attack was one of the toughest attacks in regards to jamming and electronic warfare.
Read 3 tweets
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Israel’s Operation #NorthernShield, which recently exposed #Hezbollah’s cross-border attack tunnels, has prompted the perennial question: Are #Israel and #Hezbollah about to go to war in #Lebanon? I explore it in this @AlArabiya_Eng⁩ article & below 👇🏼 english.alarabiya.net/en/features/20…
The tunnels #Hezbollah burrowed are meant to facilitate the movement and infiltration into northern #Israel of hundreds of its fighters as part of its well-established military doctrine that calls for “the conquest of the Galilee.” jcpa.org/article/hizbul…
Tunnels aren't the main threat #Israel faces from #Lebanon. Before making #NorthernShield public @netanyahu met @SecPompeo to pass a msg to the Lebanese authorities: Stop #Hezbollah’s efforts to acquire to precision-guided missiles or Israel will act. jpost.com/Israel-News/Ne…
Read 22 tweets
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#Israel air defense sirens sounding in Golan, near #Syria border.
#Israel launches two interceptor missiles in response to aerial threat from #Syria, according to Israeli broadcast reports.
Update: #Israel claims it "intercepted" a jet fighter from #Syria.
Read 4 tweets
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Thread: Over the Last 24 hours a series of events have led to a dangerously escalating situation between #Israel, #Iran & #Syria
1/ #Trump withdraws from #IranNuclearDeal
2/ #Israel Instantly activates bomb Shelters in Golan Heights
Read 28 tweets
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1/ A summary of the suspected Israeli strikes in Al-Kisweh south of #Damascus this evening, hours after #Trump announced a withdrawal #IranNukeDeal
2/ Trump withdraws from #IranNukeDeal
3/ #Israel instructed local authorities in the Golan Heights to “unlock and ready bomb shelters”, after identifying apparent "irregular activity of Iranian forces in #Syria”
Read 16 tweets
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BIG NEWS overnight

- #Israel struck x12 military targets across #Syria (4+ directly controlled by #Iran).

- #Syria dispatched drone to #Golan (from T4 AB); downed by #Israel.

- In subsequent “ambush,” one Israeli F-16 was shot down by Syrian air defenses; landed in Galilee.
#pt: After that wave of escalator incidents, #Israel has launched a second mass wave of airstrikes in #Damascus - 6+ allegedly located near #Assad’s presidential palace.

*All* #Syria Army & pro-regime facilities have reportedly been placed on red alert.
#pts: It’s no secret that #Israel has been increasingly exasperated at #Iran’s growing capabilities & infrastructure in #Syria - escalation in strikes makes sense.

BUT an F-16 shoot-down raises big questions. Some reports say S-125 was responsible (missile wreckage in picture).
Read 7 tweets

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#Iran #JonathanConricus #Turkey #Israel #Assad #Moscow #Trolls #UK #Syria #Kite #HumanRights #USAID #Yemen #Damascus #GolanHeights #God #Jordan #NorthernShield #Russia #Trump #UN #antiZionists #JINSA #Germany #Golan

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