Thread by @FirasMaksad

THREAD: After a 9-month gestation period, Lebanon gives birth to government in which 2/3rd of key ministries are controlled by Hezbollah & its allies. Hassan Nasrallah's personal physician Jamil Jabaq named Health Minister.
axios.com/hezbollah-make…

While Hezbollah participated in past Lebanon governments, this is most ministers they've had & the first time they've acquired a "service ministry," allowing them potential use of state funds for patronage when the group is under increase financial pressure due to US sanctions

US has threatened to cut funds to any ministry controlled by Hezbollah, while also potentially leaning on WHO to restrict funding of the health ministry. Naming Nasrallah's physician, who's technically not card-carrying member of group, is an attempt to ameliorate US response

Equally imp as cabinet seats, Hezbollah making further inroads into none-Shia communities, including Sunni, Druze & Christian. It successfully held up gov formation until pro-Hezbollah Sunni made minister. This challenges previously accepted communal constraints on group's sway

Today's announcement is likely to increase calls in Washington for ending US support to a Lebanon increasingly under Iran's sway, while others will contend that doing so would undermine already limited US leverage as Iran & Russia consolidate influence in eastern Mediterranean.

If US priority remains short-term stability in otherwise turbulent region, then expect US reaction to be limited, with the solution to its Hezbollah problem having to wait for potential negotiations @realDonaldTrump is eager to have with Iran.

Meanwhile, today's announcement could open door to desperately needed $11bn pledged by int donors but conditioned on reforms. Lebanon hosts over a million refugees & is 3rd most indebted nation in the world with rating agencies warning of potential default
english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/…

Worth noting that in last stretch, differences between Hezbollah & Christian ally FPM/Aounists led by @Gebran_Bassil stalled gov formation. Bassil insisted on securing over 1/3rd of cabinet seats (veto power) allegedly to use as leverage in his effort to make president in 3 years

Hezbollah refused, preferring to keep options open as contenders begin vying for presidency. In latest interview, Nasrallah signaled his commitment to Aoun may not carryover to son-in-law & party leader @Gebran_Bassil, who at times appears to play rival camps to maximize pol gain

Full listing of #Lebanon's newly announced government, with names, political affiliations & comparison to outgoing cabinet, courtesy of @scathlord & @ArabiaFdn (For simplicity Yellow = Hezbollah + allies; Blue = Hariri + allies)