, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
BREAKING

Dexeu has published No-Deal analysis

"UK economy would be 6.3-9% smaller in the long term in a
no deal scenario (after around 15 years) than it otherwise would have been when
compared with today’s arrangements, assuming no action is taken"

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"around 240,000 UK businesses that currently only trade with the EU would need to interact with customs processes for the first time, should they continue to trade with the EU. HMRC has estimated that the administrative burden...could be around £13bn p.a."
May told Commons today UK would "make a success of a no deal" although Dexeu paper would show "very serious challenges...in the short term".

That's a major distortion.

Instead paper says prediction of 6-9% hit to economy "does not account for any short term disruptions."
whether or not you believe in Treasury 15-year forecasts is obviously a whole different kettle of fish
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