Thread by @RALee85

General Gerasimov made a number of interesting points during a speech to the Military Academy of the General Staff. His full speech will be released later by Zvezda, but he signaled that Russia has an expanded view of the utility of its military. 1/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/6…

He said Russia's experience in Syria has shown a new "practical area for Russian strategy" "accomplishing missions for the protection and promotion of national interests outside the territory of Russia within the framework of a strategy of limited action." 2/

"The basis for the implementation of this strategy is the creation of a self-sufficient group of forces based on one of the branches of the military, highly mobile and capable of making the greatest contribution accomplishing missions." In Syria, this was done by the VKS. 3/

It always seemed likely that Russia would draw this lesson from Syria and the value of the forces it used there. The development of Russia's SSO and PMCs with support from other elite forces and Russian aviation means Russia's military can accomplish a variety of new missions. 4/

Previously, Russia's leadership saw the main utility of its military as providing nuclear and conventional deterrence against NATO, China, etc., and the ability to conduct certain limited conventional actions within or near its borders (primarily within the CIS). 5/

Russia's spetsnaz weren't previously particularly well suited to operating in complex environments, beyond recon and DA missions in support of ground forces. But with SSO and PMCs, Russia now has low cost, low footprint forces that can conduct FID and other missions. 6/

Russia still lacks a true alternative to US Special Forces that can work by, with, and through local partners, and GRU Spetsnaz brigades aren't well suited to this role, so SSO has taken on this mission as well as being the premier DA force for operations outside of Russia. 7/

Recent reforms to the VDV also point in this direction by receiving organic transport and attack helicopters, tank battalions, stronger ISR, and lighter, non-mechanized units. The VDV is increasingly focusing on becoming a global QRF instead of just large conventional wars. 8/

This means that the Russian military is a more capable, flexible tool for Russian foreign policy. Russia has also proven itself to be capable of decisively defending its allies during insurgencies, even if they don't border Russia. This is a powerful selling point to dictators.9/

I don't want to oversell this point. Russia would still struggle to sustain a Syria-type operation farther from its borders, but it can now accomplish a variety of new missions that it couldn't before. Gerasimov's comments certainly indicate that he also realizes this. 10/

Given that Russia doesn't have economic tools comparable to those of the US or China to support its foreign policy goals, I wouldn't be surprised if it relies increasingly on its military component, which would likely involve the MoD becoming a bigger player in Russian FP. 11/

And this is a capability that won't be particularly harmed by Russia's declining defense spending. But I do think there is still a question of how much Russia relies on PMCs or SOF to accomplish these missions, and who is in command (i.e. Prigozhin vs Shoigu/Gerasimov). 12/