Thread by @DavidHenigUK

This is starting to be a trend - no-dealers preferring long extension to the PM's deal. Remainers and the EU have also made similar noises. Happening again, every time the PM plays for time her support diminishes /corrected thread 1
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You can see the attraction for the no-dealers, they think the next PM will be a no-dealer, will win an election over a Labour Party in increasing disarray, and then everything will be ready for a no-deal Brexit at end 2020 2/

We would be more ready for no-deal by end 2020, though the underlying problems would remain, the Irish border, probably growing demands for Scotland to be no part of this, no trade with our largest trading partner 3/

More immediately we expect no meaningful change to the agreement, PM then loses meaningful vote. Does she continue with her my deal or nothing approach, asking the EU for a 3 month extension? Probably, but now there are other pathways... 4/

Her deal subject to a referendum (Kyle / Wilson) probably passes, her deal heading in the direction of a permanent customs union probably also does, how about a remain / ERG deal for a no-deal v remain referendum? 5/

We're increasingly headed into PM versus Parliament territory, where she can barely rely on Ministers, let alone backbenchers. Perhaps she can still squeeze her unloved deal through by fear of worse, but as of today that isn't looking good 6/ end