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THREAD: Pelosi’s big statement against impeachment reveals how Democrats have internalized the wrong political lesson from 98 and have failed to grasp the lessons from Watergate. The current political debate vastly overstates the potential downside and understates the upside. 1/
Here’s the BLUF: If the facts support an impeachment process the public will be w/ you and there will be a political windfall. If the facts aren’t w/ you, the blowback will likely be… not that bad. The GOP barely suffered any blowback for its total insanity in 98. 2/
The prevailing political zeitgeist on impeachment is heavily influenced by the Clinton impeachment process. The conventional historical narrative is that Republicans blindly pursued impeachment and suffered a massive political backlash in the 98 elections. It’s overstated. 3/
Yes the GOP suffered a backlash. But this wasn’t some epic defeat. GOP lost only 5 (!) House seats, they won the popular vote by 1.1%, and lost no Senate seats. This was a “defeat” since Dems controlled the WH and Gingrich resigned! But... 4/
The GOP pursuit of impeachment was politically INSANE. Lewinsky broke in Jan 98 and Clinton’s approval rating went UP to +65% where it stayed even after the Starr report came out in Sept 98 and GOP voted to begin impeachment in Oct. 5/ news.gallup.com/poll/116584/pr…
The public also saw impeachment as political motivated and without merit. Clinton was immensely popular and also overseeing a booming economy. All of that was clear at the time, yet Republicans plunged forward anyway. 6/
And yet there wasn’t some epic political blowback. CNN said it was “the great ‘Impeachment election’ that never was.” It appeared to have “little to no impact at all. For the most part, Americans returned their incumbents to Washington.” 7/ cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/st…
So in short the GOP launched an insanely unpopular and unmerited impeachment effort against an immensely popular president and lost only 5 (FIVE) House seats with most incumbents return to office. 8/
But not only that... the GOP impeachment effort was helpful to Bush in the 2000 election, as he ran on restoring “honor and dignity” to the White House. Gore selected Lieberman and tied himself knots over Clinton’s role. He ran away from a popular President! 9/
So the political lesson from Clinton should be pursuing a BS and unpopular impeachment effort vs. a popular president may not be wise politics... BUT even then it hardly guarantees significant political blowback. 10/
The Nixon case is the polar opposite of Clinton’s. Watergate caused Nixon’s approval ratings to plummet. A smoking gun appeared and Nixon’s resignation confirmed that he was a crook and the GOP's multiyear defense of Nixon caused massive blowback. 11/ pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014…
Dems won 49(!) seats in 1974 and won the popular vote by 17%(!). Dems also won the presidency in 1976 in large part due to Ford's role in pardoning Nixon. That was the only time Dems won the White House between 1968-92. 12/
Yet when the Dems opened the House impeachment inquiry in Feb 74 support for impeachment was at just 38%. It was certainly not obvious where Watergate w/d go and how it w/d play politically. 13/ 
In May 74 (3 months before Nixon resigned), Nixon even held a political rally in Arizona flanked by Barry Goldwater and other GOP members. Nixon said “The time has come to put. Watergate behind us and get on with the business of America.” 14/ nytimes.com/1974/05/04/arc…
The GOP's multiyear defense of Nixon over Watergate backfired by tying them to Nixon. Dems also benefited from running a professional and fact-driven inquiry process. 15/
The Nixon and Clinton examples s/d really worry Republicans. The GOP congress has already tied themselves to Trump, spending last 2 yrs defending and protecting him. They are therefore in a very politically perilous position b/c... 16/
...the Russia investigation has all the signs of Nixon and Watergate. The investigation will almost certainly implicate Trump, people are going to jail, and 64% think Trump committed crimes.... 17 cnn.com/2019/03/05/pol…
Support for impeachment is also already around 50% and the public is concerned about the scandal, even though they are confused by it. All that means is that if and when the investigation leads to Trump the public c/d shift even more decisively. 18/ newsweek.com/roger-stone-do…
The GOP has a choice. It can double down on Trump; block efforts to convict Trump in the Senate and w/hold all support for impeachment thereby making it “partisan” in hopes of blunting the political fallout and scaring away Dems... 19/ protecttheinvestigation.org/wp-content/upl…
Or they can defect. And try to create distance between them and Trump. The severity of Mueller’s findings and how Dems respond will likely shape what the GOP does. But they are the party b/w a rock and a hard place politically - not Dems. 20/
All this is to say – Dems should just follow the facts. There is no need to worry about political blowback. Trump tried that in 2018 – it didn’t work! Stop being scared of your own shadow, stop over thinking this, and trying to be savvy. Just follow the facts. 21/
If Democrats do that the politics will likely work out in their favor, bigly. 22/22
