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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
So @Mij_Europe has latest #Brexit take to clients. The verdict: too little, too late. Couple of interesting points....

@Mij_Europe The ERG aren't likely to 'buy' because the know that the deal itself will make it very hard to prove bad faith' on EU side when they reject tech solutions. /2
@Mij_Europe Also, given that even in May's best case 20-30 ERG won't support, its not clear where incentives are for Labour MPs to 'save' May when there's not guarntee it goes over anyway.

In short...Good try Theresa, but no cigar. 3/ENDS
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The EU is focusing down on its choices for #Article50 extension - but that could create a serious potential for a 'no deal' cliff-edge at end of June. Bear with me. 1/Thread

The EU says it will be "legally unstable" if UK doesn't hold elections/have MEPs.

So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23. That means legislating in UK in April.

This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2
It could also mean that IF May opts for short extension (to June 30) and we go past that April deadline, then May 23 elctions without participating, then there is NO WAY BACK. Eeek.

Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3
Read 10 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The #Article50 extension conundrum facing the European Union is going to be nasty - whichever way #MV3 breaks next week. Some quick thoughts after chats.

1/Thread
Whichever way the result goes, the likelihood is that it will be close.

A narrow victory.

A narrow loss.

Both are a nightmare for the EU side as they ponder an extension. /2
First, a narrow win.

This falls short of the 'stable majority' EU been demanding and exposes them to the risk it all breaks down after fact.

In that scenario a 3 month extension - for the 'legals' as @simoncoveney - opens door a collapse and an accidental 'no deal' /3
Read 15 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Oooph. Is that game, set & match for tonight's vote?

#Brexit
A crumb of comfort here?
The 'ifs' doing a lot of work here.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
In this thread, we would like to address a few brexit issues. But before we do, we would like you to look up the terms 'Potemkin Village' and 'force multiplier' #brexit
2/ In the UK, there has *NEVER* been a demand for a hard brexit. @_SimonBarnett can get you some stats on this. And the Tory backbench MPs who kept the flame of euroscepticism alive for decades talked about a Swiss style deal with the EU or a Norway deal, an FTA at the least.
3/ But then in a approximately 11 year period a perfect storm grew - A: the EU pushed for more treaty powers B: The EU wished to expand and incorporate new member states C: The media started reporting more about interfering "Brussels Bureaucrats".
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) #Brexit Facts that shouldn't need stating
It's ridiculous that this has to be repeated, and even more ridiculous that our Media seem genuinely incapable of stating these facts, but the brexit paradox is very, very simple to articulate in 5 or so statements - thread
a) If you want to have different trade positions (tariffs, regulations, quotas, whatever) either side of a border - *you have to have a border*
The backstop is needed because the reality is there is no answer to "global Britain & new trade deals" and the Irish border
b) There will *never* be a majority of support for any #Brexit deal, not even among leavers - hard Brexit, Soft Brexit and May's half way fudge are all fundamentally opposed to each other & the Leave vote is split amongst them. No Brexit proposition can ever be popular
Read 7 tweets
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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Support for ‘no deal’ Brexit is the pinnacle of Leave's descent into zealotry. The end result of refusing to plan

Like Trump, 'no deal' advocates have flooded the debate with “alternative facts”
It won't end well

THREAD! PLEASE RETWEET!

#Brexit #WTOBrexit #NoDealBrexit #SOS
The increased support for a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the ultimate failure of the Leave movement. It’s the inevitable consequence of the refusal to grasp details, come to terms with complexity & coalesce around a plan. Compromise can be frustrating. So instead they will have a tantrum.
Some Brexiteers advocated sensible solutions. The EFTA/EEA solution gained a lot of traction in the years before the ref. Even Farage had promoted it & countless others. See Farage below from 2011 essentially making the ‘Liberal Leave’ case!
Read 55 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
As a remainer I scratch my head as to why #Brexit continues to enjoy significant support despite overwhelming evidence its a really bad idea so thought I'd offer a psychological explanation for its appeal to some of its supporters which simply cannot lie in objective reality
I have no knowledge experience or professional qualifications in psychology whatsoever but as this is #brexit Britain this means I know more than professionals like @RichardBentall so offer my brexpertise on the psychological appeal of Brexit confident in my total ignorance
Being a Brexiter means being part of a huge crowd where not only are you all cheering for the same thing but this crowd permits and even encourages behaviour and attitudes which are normally forbidden and some brexiters at least feel liberated from decency and reason
Read 25 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets

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