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1/Returning to what I think is the central political dynamic in US politics today - Trump's historically bad poll numbers. In new study we found US Presidents in post war era combined had at this point 72 days at -10 approval. Trump has had more than 700. ndn.org/blog/2019/05/t…
2/A new Monmouth poll has a critical measure for any incumbent - vote for someone else in next election - at 60%. Few incumbents ever get up that high as it requires a huge about face from many many folks who voted for you. ABC/WaPo had similar numbers. thehill.com/homenews/admin…
3/What has to be freaking out Trump/WH is that months now of global saber rattling, tariffs, border and burying Mueller is driving his poll numbers DOWN. He's seen a sharp decline in both Rasmussen, his fav, and @FiveThirtyEight, in recent weeks. Sharp.
4/No President at this point in their Presidency has had the negatives Trump has now. It is unprecedented, and the disapproval is broad, deep and intense. His slippage in TX/SW has been consequential, but he's also in really bad shape in MI/PA/WI.
5/Understand he sometimes can defy traditional political physics, but Trump today is in a place where very few incumbents have returned from. 2020 looks a lot more like 2018 than 2016. His grand political project has failed, and he/WH know it. ndn.org/blog/2019/05/t…
6/If things continue to slide for Trump, or fail to improve, GOP establishment is not going to stand by, watch their whole thing go down. Trump must begin to turns things around or it's going to get much tougher w/Rs. I think he's in far deeper trouble than people understand.
7/How do things get better for Trump? As we've written below, economy will also certainly slow down. His legal problems sure look they are going to get far worse. The Barr blockade won't hold, and we will hear from Mueller soon.
medium.com/@cktaylor55/be…
medium.com/@cktaylor55/be…
8/Perhaps blinded by the daily spectacle we are failing to see the moment for what it is - a failed President desperately, almost comically, trying to save himself. Denying the House everything, burying Mueller, his tantrum yesterday - acts of desperation. cnn.com/2019/05/22/pol…
9/I don't know how this all ends, but Trump's in very big trouble right now. He's the most unpopular 1st term President ever; his numbers are dropping; he's acting crazy, desperate; little's he done is working; Mueller. IMHO he's one big scandal away fr Rs tossing him overboard.
