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1) There's actually a fascinating story in the Brexit party vote, courtesy of @GoodwinMJ & Lord Ashcroft..
It's a bit of a dogs breakfast of a largely protest vote that doesn't really mean anything as perhaps only 50% of it (which itself is only 40% of the population) matters
It's a bit of a dogs breakfast of a largely protest vote that doesn't really mean anything as perhaps only 50% of it (which itself is only 40% of the population) matters
@GoodwinMJ 2) so we know UKIP (Farage party 1.0) transferred 24% of votes to BxP (Farage party 2.0) and that Farage party 2.0 picked up around 8% from the collapse in Labour (13%) & Tories (53%) confirming that Brexit is a right wing project
However...
However...
@GoodwinMJ 3) we already know that the EU turnout was 40%, so roughly 16% of the voting public voted for Farage 2.0 (obviously more may vote in a GE)
But only 50% of Brexit party voters will stick with him in a GE
And fully 1/3rd don't actually want no deal
But only 50% of Brexit party voters will stick with him in a GE
And fully 1/3rd don't actually want no deal
@GoodwinMJ 4) so putting all that together:
The Brexit party could represent only 16% of the voting public
Only 2/3rds of that number actually want a no deal
And already, half of the possible 16% will go back to their parties in a GE
It's a dogs breakfast of a vote
The Brexit party could represent only 16% of the voting public
Only 2/3rds of that number actually want a no deal
And already, half of the possible 16% will go back to their parties in a GE
It's a dogs breakfast of a vote
