Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1) #Brexit has only survived so far because Kippers, Tories & Labour have supported "we voted to Leave" without any actual Leave deal being put forward

Now its crunch time, its Leave with no deal (not a "World Trade Deal" or "Jobs first deal") or Remain

Nothing in between
2) the Brexit/Tory party will have to explain no deal, and those opposing it can actually oppose it without getting into a "well, if we were in charge" fudging exercise

On these numbers no deal Brexit loses handsomely
3) there's been a lot of complaints about adding the Remain vote together but hard Brexit is the only Brexit left, there is no middle ground, and the numbers for it just aren't high enough

How many soft brexiters/just get it done types will accept full no deal Brexit? Not many
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to tony nog #FBPE
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#Brexit

More from @tony_nog see all

Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) hoodwinked libertarians & the #Brexit Company - Thread
I wanted to bring up this exchange not to embarrass the person involved but to highlight a phenomenon I've seen twice this morning, pro Democrats voting for an authoritarian shell, the Brexit "party"
2) twice today I've come across people who complain, rightly or wrongly, about the "undemocratic" EU, who have researched its democratic deficits..

...and yet have happily voted for an authoritarian shell "party" which has no democratic processes at all, because its "temporary"
3) to reiterate, Farage 2.0, the BxP, has no manifesto, no way to join as a member, no way to depose the leader, no way to vote on policy

And this is all *by design*, see 12 mins in, because Farage was tired of the democratic processes in UKIP

channel4.com/news/nigel-far…
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) There's actually a fascinating story in the Brexit party vote, courtesy of @GoodwinMJ & Lord Ashcroft..

It's a bit of a dogs breakfast of a largely protest vote that doesn't really mean anything as perhaps only 50% of it (which itself is only 40% of the population) matters
@GoodwinMJ 2) so we know UKIP (Farage party 1.0) transferred 24% of votes to BxP (Farage party 2.0) and that Farage party 2.0 picked up around 8% from the collapse in Labour (13%) & Tories (53%) confirming that Brexit is a right wing project

However...

@GoodwinMJ 3) we already know that the EU turnout was 40%, so roughly 16% of the voting public voted for Farage 2.0 (obviously more may vote in a GE)

But only 50% of Brexit party voters will stick with him in a GE

And fully 1/3rd don't actually want no deal

Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) 4 authentic successful, coherent pro Remain voices
#EUelections2019

In some ways this is the best outcome for Remain & #FinalSay, because the Labour/Tory #Brexit conspiracy is broken & LDs, Greens, SNP & PC can emerge with an unambiguous message - no #Brexit is a good Brexit
2) Remain has had since day 1 a single overriding barrier - the media, especially the BBC, have overwhelmingly favoured Farage, the Tories & Labour, and all 3 are on the same #Brexit side, that Brexit could be pain free, cost free, jobs first if it was just done properly
3) are all Farage's supporters no deal zealots? Of course not, they largely believe, like the Tories, that stropping off will force the EU27 to a deal.

Labour believes that kind words and the power of magic grandpa will do the same thing

"I can do #Brexit better than you can"
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
In latest #Brexit note I’m told “The person who might defeat Boris is Boris.” So what do we think is next for #Brexit? Short thread on our revised basecase - which will evolve - post May & Euro elections
Results of Euro elections will have significant impact on both Tories & Labour. But in short term, the most dramatic impact will be felt in the Tory leadership race 1/
1) @Nigel_Farage triumph is good news for @BorisJohnson, who is the man to beat, the agenda-setter and early front-runner & our basecase for PM (If not, then we think @DominicRaab, followed by @michaelgove then @Jeremy_Hunt) 2/
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1. #News ~ President Trump blasts Democrats' declaration of constitutional crisis as 'PATHETICALLY UNTRUE' foxnews.com/politics/trump…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA #WALKAWAY
#Trump2020 #WINNING #MAGA #KAG
2. #News ~ Sen. Tom Cotton gives a glimpse of Arlington National Cemetery through the eyes of the Old Guard video.foxnews.com/v/603599886300…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA #Military
#History #Respect #Honor #Vets #Veterans #Salute
3. #News ~ Exclusive: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan talks securing the border, handling North Korea and China video.foxnews.com/v/603599625100…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
#Trump2020 #WINNING #MAGA #KAG
Read 104 tweets
Profile picture
⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
Profile picture
Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. One of the arguments made by remainers during the referendum was that #Brexit would make us "inward looking". The solipsism of the Brexit parliamentary debate, though, suggests that we have never been more politically self-absorbed.
2. If we bother with european politics at all it is only in terms of near-Europe, hyperventilating about French protests or speculating on Merkel. Only when there's a juicy drama do we pay any attention. Adult concerns seldom ever feature.
3. I have of late taken an interest in Eastern European politics. I am by no means an expert - and I'm aware of the many pitfalls, but I sense a growing tension in Ukraine with serious ramifications for Poland and Germany who disagree on a number of issues.
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
Pete North
@PeteNorth303
#Brexit Thread: a list of 20 random reasons why I voted to leave the EU

1. The impossibility of meaningful treaty reform. We cannot edit the supranationalist DNA of the EU
2. The exclusion of the public from decisions relating to further integration. See Treaty of Lisbon.
3. The way in which the EU will seek homogenisation and integration for its own sake and for that of EU ideology over practical necessity.
Read 22 tweets
Profile picture
Rachel Heyburn #FBPE #WeAreTheOppositionNow
@Rachel5742
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GE2017 #EnemyOfThePeople #bbcqt #NoDealBrexit #Brexit #motion #NHS #citizensrights #GFA #StopBrexit #MAGA #Ayes #heart #Hero #ERG #ExtendingArticle50 #KAG #vote #Tories #Honor #compromise #brexit #Article50 #NoConfidence #Communism
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!