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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
There's been an opinion poll
Opinium 28–30 May; YouGov 28–29 May: midpoints
Brexit Party 24%
Labour 20½%
Lib Dem 20%
Con 18%
Green 9½%
Here is Opinium, adjusted by its errors in the European election:
Lib Dem 16% +5 21%
Brexit Party 26% -6 20%
Labour 22% -3 19%
Green 11% +5 16%
Con 17% -3 14%
Source:
And YouGov, adjusted by its errors in the European election:
Lib Dem 24% +1 25%
Con 19% +2 21%
Lab 19% +1 20%
Brexit Party 22% -5 17%
Green 8% ±0 8%
Opinium 28–30 May; YouGov 28–29 May; Deltapoll fieldwork dates not known: averages
Brexit Party 24%
Labour 22%
Con 19%
Lib Dem 19%
The Wikipedia polls graph, now with LOESS trend lines, is extraordinary en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…
Deltapoll fieldwork was 29-30 May, so average of three polls carried out since European elections:
Brexit Party 24%
Labour 22%
Con 19%
Lib Dem 19%
And the Wikipedia opinion poll graph has been updated en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
My explanation of how to stop the UK being bounced out of EU without a deal, in defiance of parliament, was flawed independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…
Thanks to @cath_haddon for pointing this out: see this thread from yesterday
But I still don't think a PM could "go on strike" to force us out if the Commons were determined to prevent it
Read 9 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Andrew Marr asked @sajidjavid what he would do if parliament legislated against no-deal exit news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/h…
And he asked the same question of @andrealeadsom news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/h…
She went on: "What I’m talking about is a managed exit with measures that I do believe parliamentarians will get behind."
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
This is all wrong. Steve Baker was supposed to be the 13th candidate to declare #bakersdozen
As far as I know, Sam Gyimah has no Tory MP backers so far
You can get him at 341/1 on Betfair oddschecker.com/politics/briti…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Ben Bradley MP
@bbradleymp
A #brexit thread 👇

1. In 2017 we were invited to #No10 to talk to Gavin Barwell about our thoughts on things. I had a conversation with him on #Brexit that rings absolutely true now and is more relevant than ever - so I thought I'd share:
2. I said to him that #Brexit had redrawn 'party lines' - that right/left was now less relevant that #leave/#remain and we had to examine our 'core vote' on that basis. We had done well in the #Mansfield-esque seats and lost the Croydons, we needed to think about why.
3. I said to Barwell that there was no compromise that would keep both #remainers and #leavers happy. That we could not keep both audiences on board in the context of #Brexit and we should not try - it's impossible. We had to leave first, and then we could rebuild the coalition.
Read 8 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
THREAD/ We take an in-depth look at EU Parliament voting intention. First up, new headline results:

Brexit Party - 35%
Lib Dem - 16%
Lab - 15%
Green - 10%
Con - 9%
Change UK - 5%
UKIP - 3%
Other - 7%
(Fieldwork 12-16 May)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Only 35% of 2017 Labour voters - and just 20% of 2017 Conservative voters - say they intend to vote for those parties again at the EU Parliament elections. 62% of Tory voters will back the Brexit Party, while 43% of Lab voters will go Lib Dem/Green/CHUK yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Labour will see 47% of its Leave-voting supporters back the Brexit Party at the EU Parliament elections. A quarter (23%) of Remain-voting Conservatives will back the Lib Dems
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 5 tweets
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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets
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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit ricapitoliamo:

1) accordo May è unico possibile per linee rosse fissate da May

2) accordo May è svantaggioso per Uk perché nulla è più vantaggioso di appartenenza a Ue

3) se Uk vuole sovranità assoluta deve uscire con no-deal

4) no-deal è distruttivo per Uk
#Brexit ricapitoliamo:

5) May ha fissato linee rosse da sola: uscita da mercato interno per riprendere controllo su immigrazione Ue e uscita Unione doganale per accordi commerciali

6) linee rosse sono state fissate da May per mantenere unito il partito conservatore, non per Uk
#Brexit ricapitoliamo:

7) linee rosse di May sono diventate rosa con backstop perché incompatibili con assenza frontiera fisica Irlanda-Irlanda del Nord

8) i Brexiters Tories se ne sono accorti e votano contro accordo May modellato su esigenze Brexiters
Read 7 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Jack D 🌹| #GTTO | ✋🏽
@JackDunc1
#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #NoDeal #EU #Manifesto #Mansfield #PeoplesVote #GTTO #Manchester #ConservativeParty #poll #yougov #EUelections2019 #BRINO #commonsense #remain #GeneralElectionNow #agreement #schools #ThisTimeImVoting #MuellerReport #leavers #MayMustGo #localelections2018 #SFFN #CambridgeAnalytica
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