Thread by @DavidHenigUK

From Trump back to Brexit, and we have the treat of another paper from no-deal Brexiteers - "A Clean Managed Brexit" to be launched tomorrow.

Have they finally found the way forward?

Spoiler alert: No... 1/

The summary: If the EU won't agree a temporary FTA (they won't, and it was never offered to the UK only GB), then contingency plans and alternative arrangements for a seamless Irish border (frequently debunked). Read on for more... 2/

First a brief bit of Parliamentary process. The Withdrawal Agreement is dead because it has been rejected by Parliament. No-deal, also rejected by Parliament, is therefore the only way forward... 3/

No-deal does not mean the end of cooperation with the EU we are told, citing as an example unilateral measures proposed by the Commission. Hardly evidence. As for the third paragraph here, goodness only knows what it means. 4/

Financial settlement. Don't pay, and spend the money. But if the aim is an FTA with the EU in the future surely they'd expect our share to be paid? And no consequences otherwise of being seen as a country not paying our bills? 5/

The next bit deals with the temporary FTA we won't get, so onto more mitigation, reducing tariffs, and negotiating trade deals with agricultural exporters (hardly an immediate win). Any harm to EU exports a necessary step towards a trade deal! 6/

You will note there is no mention here of UK exporters, in agriculture or elsewhere, suddenly facing the prospect of significant new barriers to trade. But apparently there will be less uncertainty. How? Why? 7/

Anyway, good news, mutual recognition of services is easy and can be done by October. Never mind the years it has taken the EU, or the need for them to agree, or that no trade agreement has ever achieved this, it will be "relatively simple". Ridiculous. 8/

It gets worse. We're not going to pay but will offer draft treaties to the EU, including on the Ireland border, where we're going to create the world's first invisible border outside the EU using apparently currently available procedures. 9/

Having sorted out the EU relationship, time for the UK's future trade strategy. Unspecified competitive reforms, hit developing countries by eliminating tariffs on agriculture we don't produce, and something I don't understand on import prices 10/

Bilateral trade - negotiate first with the EU, US, India, China, and replicate existing agreements. Then move onto "more difficult FTAs". Nice to have ambition I suppose, but this looks perhaps a little much for a country with no trade negotiating experience 11/

To be fair the paper suggests the US will have priority. Though not why, and given that deal's focus on NHS and food standards, good luck with that, Meantime also rewrite developing country trade agreements in unspecified ways 12/

Join CPTPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) noting that nothing in our EU agreement must stop us doing so - which means clear barriers to EU trade and leaving the EU standards system. The EU agreement is the least important therefore - even though our biggest trading partner 13/

More goodwill towards the EU - we should threaten them with WTO action if they treat us like other third countries, we should also apparently join a club of agriculture exporters, if we have any agriculture left, and become services leaders (modestly of course) 14/

And so we conclude. No-deal is just temporary because obviously the EU will be enticed to a trade deal by the spirit of cooperation shown in not paying them, putting trade with every other country first, and wanting to take action at the WTO 15/

My conclusion. Embarrassing that after 3 years this is their best argument for no-deal. Delusions of instant trade deals covering up that at least 50% of our exports will face greater barriers on day 1. And total refusal to face up to the real world. 16/ end, and good night