,
6 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Most important thing in today's trade data release?
The evidence that U.S. trade has basically stalled. Setting petrol aside, imports,in volume, terms were flat y/y; exports were down just a bit.
The evidence that U.S. trade has basically stalled. Setting petrol aside, imports,in volume, terms were flat y/y; exports were down just a bit.
the fall in exports has fairly broad based -- exports of industrial supplies, capital goods and autos all down y/y.
soybeans are up y/y (making up for a bad q4). And civil aircraft were down, but engines were up -- so that didn't drive the fall in capital goods.
soybeans are up y/y (making up for a bad q4). And civil aircraft were down, but engines were up -- so that didn't drive the fall in capital goods.
on the import side, there is a gap between imports of computers and telco equipment (down, in capital goods) and imports of cellphones (holding up) -- might be useful information to those tracking the tariff impact ...
But all anyone wants to focus on is China!
Imports were down 9% in April (less than in q1) bringing the YTD fall down to 12.8%. Had the tariffs remained at their q1 levels, the large q fall may have been an overshoot for the full impact ...
Imports were down 9% in April (less than in q1) bringing the YTD fall down to 12.8%. Had the tariffs remained at their q1 levels, the large q fall may have been an overshoot for the full impact ...
Imports from Taiwan and Korea continue to be up strongly y/y. Clear trade diversion
The evidence of diversion toward Mexico for now is much weaker - imports from Mexico are up 6% y/y, same as imports from Europe (a bit faster than overall nominal imports, not hugely so ... )
The evidence of diversion toward Mexico for now is much weaker - imports from Mexico are up 6% y/y, same as imports from Europe (a bit faster than overall nominal imports, not hugely so ... )
underlying data can be found here
and, BEA, could you please add a line item for Vietnam to Exhibit 14? thanks
bea.gov/data/intl-trad…
and, BEA, could you please add a line item for Vietnam to Exhibit 14? thanks
bea.gov/data/intl-trad…
