Thread by @s13GES

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK All well and fine but I was referring to something different: UK media always presented the backstop as a British choice and then later as an Irish choice. The former is just half true, the latter is much closer to reality. /1

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK If UK would not have voluntarily committed to it, Ireland would have insisted or vetoed WA without a backstop. It has been an Irish priority, HMG just proactively called it earlier. /2

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK However, @TomMcTague said that this backstop should have been for later, the insistance onside of the Irish government would be a mistake: That's tactical and strategic nonsense. /3

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK For one, as highlighted, once you ignore the issue it would have gotten much more difficult to put it back on the table. Even the slightest of the risk that this issue slips from EU's agenda is not acceptable from the Irish side. /4

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Second, and more importantly, it's plain nonsense to pretend that there is any solution not undermining the SM integrity or CU OR detecting new infrastructure. From the Irish side this is contemptable. Other than some Brits, they do think they have the right to the status quo. /5

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Hence it would be blunder to kick the can down the road. The choice would have always been the same, now or in five years. The difference is: With putting it now UK is much less prepared and no deal would risk a state crisis. /6

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK In other words, you can easily see that with additional pressure you may end up with UK either choosing mini deals replicating WA or parts of UK disintegrating (secession of SCO and reuniting of Ireland while making sure rUK is political paralysed). /7

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK This outcome is far less likely in five years time, UK could prepare - and some of the issues could become less salient decreasing the division within UK society enabling HMG/HoC to coherently act and avoid committing to WA obligations. /8

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK This is the last thing EU and Ireland should want. Better a hard state crisis, political paralysis and potential disintegration which wolves the issue one or the other way (either by secession or by humiliated HMG begging for mini deals). /9

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Obviously, it could turn out to be far less dramatic. But so far, no deal seems to be - for what is so far known - an economic disaster with potential to really bad spill over effects. It's a likely scenario. /10

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Good politics should build on the most likely scenarios. So the strategic choice made by Ireland and EU has been so far successful: divisions and a looming crisis in UK. /11

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Creating a situation where UK may have the choice of disintegration or accepting the inevitable is a success from EU perspective. But even if no deal is far easier to deal from UK side it would have been ok. /12

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK For one, integrity of SM is one of the biggest geopolitical assets of EU. Softening on that for the whims of a weaker neighbour would be bad, in the best case it encourages EU27 electorates to ask for more exceptions which may risk SM disintegration/ weakening in future. /13

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Second, UK put down red lines which would have either meant to chick Ireland under the bus or risk SM integrity. So why not throwing Ireland? /14

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK I know that some UK commenters have problems with basics of geography, but looking at EU maps, large majorities of EU27 are small and are historically frightened by their neighbours (ask Poland or Baltic states for Russia). /15

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK They may not like no deal now, but it wouldn't take.long until they remember their historical adversaries and would wonder how EU would react when they would get threatened. /16

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK And before somebody wonders about NATO: Really? With Trump? For most of them EU is the closest ally and weakening those ties would come as a shock, sooner or later. So throwing Ireland under the bus is not an option. /17

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK But would no deal not hurt Ireland or EU? Sure, but far less than UK. End it may end up UK choking on it, it would demonstrate that EU is willing to go the extra mile to make it as painful as possible for third parties - a pretty nice insurance and it comes with subsidies. /18

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK Which is the last point, EU has more in peto to amplify the pain on UK side (pressuring potential FTA partners, inviting Sturgeon to Brussels etc). Plus, they can support Ireland - it would at least soften the blow but making it harder for UK. /19

@Muinchille @syrpis @OdysseusRex @AllieRenison @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK All points lead to just one conclusion: Confronting UK as early & as unprepared as possible w/ the inevitable choice in order to make sure that they're as unable as possible to deal with the fallout & that it is as easy as possible to amplify their pain to force submission. 20/20