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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Global Business Confidence 1/4

[flash Manufacturing PMI]

• US 50.0 120M low
• Japan 49.6 tick up
• Germany 43.1 84M low
• France 50.0 3M low
• Eurozone 46.4 79M low

FED to cut, ECB to cut + QE, BoJ remains QQE #GlobalSlowDown
2/4 US flash M.PMI vs markets

• 50.0 10Y low
• -0.6 MoM
• -5.3 YoY
• heavyweight on Global PMI index
3/4 Germany flash M.PMI vs markets

• 43.1 84M low
• -1.9 MoM
• -13.8 YoY

vs DAX and BUNDs YoY
4/4 France flash M.PMI vs markets

• 50.0 3M low
• -1.9 MoM
• -3.3 YoY

vs CAC and OATs YoY
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
back at the desk and THIS ?? Chicago PMI (bit more volatile than ISM) but what a miss vs expectations!

FOMC members see those numbers too.

YoY momentum -19.7 is 3rd largest after -23.7 Dec2008 and -20.9 Mar2001 💥
when in Mar2001 Chicago PMI hits -20.9 YoY, SPX rolled over long time ago and was -30% off peak.

in Dec2008 when PMI was -23.7 YoY, SPX of course in a total mess -50% after LEH.

Now, PMI -19.7 YoY and SPX near ATH.
2 worlds: a complete different Business vs Market confidence
when in Mar2001 Chicago PMI hits -20.9 YoY, US10Y rolled over long time ago and was -200bp off peak.

in Dec2008 when PMI was -23.7 YoY, US10Y was -325bp off peak.

Now, PMI -19.7 YoY and US10Y is -120bp off recent peak. THIS at least makes sense
Read 9 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
interesting and rare divergence currently between apparently rebounding inflation expectations and bond price action (yields -0.39%) in Germany 🧐

if it’s too obvious, then it’s obviously right. or is it ?

#FGBL_F #BUNDs
personally, I think infl exp will come down again, given the 💩 state of global, EU and German growth expectations: ESI and PMI...

but Bunds are not on a one way street either... temporary rich
US not as diverged as Germany, but I read them both as a possible further consolidation in TNotes and Bunds.
Read 4 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly Recap wk30 as of 26Jul19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• stocks mixed, SPX outperformed RoW
• Tech+Banks top, Miners PT
• Creditspreads tighter
• CMDTY driven FX weaker
• ZA downgraded by Fitch
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• v volatile post ECB session
2/n Global Markets monthly performance update ...as we nearly end RiskOn July
3/n Global Markets update YTD as of wk30 = RiskOn 2019 so far
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