Thread by @tculpan

THREAD
China yesterday made the sudden move to ban individual mainland tourists to Taiwan starting today. It cited "the current state of cross-strait relations."
People see this as a disaster for Taiwan's economy.
But not so fast..
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

China severely cut the flow of visitors to Taiwan after Tsai Ing-wen's @iingwen 2016 election.
Taipei responded by easing rules on SEA travelers.
Further, the reduced flow of mainland visitors is offset by more Japan, Korea tourists wishing to visit.
Now: Japan + Korea > Mainland

@iingwen While any tourist dollar is, in theory, accretive to GDP.
The contribution from mainland visitors is easily overstated.
Japan, Korea visitors spend more per day than mainland visitors.
Moreover, they spend more on employment drivers: hotels, restaurants, transport.

@iingwen Where mainland visitors do spend more money than others is shopping.
However, a CRUCIAL point is that around half that money is spent on luxury (jewelry, cosmetics, perfumes, accessories, alcohol). Most are imported, meaning little economic contribution or tax revenue to Taiwan

@iingwen Almost 60% of the shopping done by Japanese visitors goes toward Taiwanese specialty products, compared to less than a third of mainland Chinese expenditure. The figure for South Korea is similar to Japan.

@iingwen So, in summary:
A cut in mainland tourism to Taiwan has seen a double-digit increase in visitors from Japan & Korea in past 3yrs.
Japan & Korea combined now send more visitors to Taiwan than mainland China.
They spend more.
That money spent goes more directly to Taiwan's economy