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, 5 tweets, 1 min read
1) I think the wearables growth vector is more powerful, sustainable and valuable than services for $AAPL.

aboveavalon.com
2) $AAPL is fundamentally not good at services, which *might* change over the next 2-3 years given the hiring of John Giannandrea. The services growth story is mostly about exploiting the power of defaults and extracting value from other co’s for access to $AAPL’s user base.
3) While wearables is exactly what $AAPL is best at – hardware/software/ecosystem – and creates value for the user base while lowering churn.
4) The iPhone is becoming an edge server for Airpods and Watches. AR will accelerate all of this. Attach rates still low, runway is long.
5) No opinion on the stock right now, just intellectually interested and important to be aware of developments in their ecosystem. i.e. Airpods driving podcast growth.
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Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
1) Even more important than the rising cost of AI driven by increasing model sizes and the associated compute is the fact that the quantity of relevant data drives AI quality.

nytimes.com/2019/09/26/tec…
2) A 10x increase in the quantity of relevant data used for training generally doubles the quality of the AI per multiple Google and Microsoft research papers.
3) And very few co's have the massive, growing unique/relevant/specific datasets necessary to compete at the frontier of AI. Might be the most powerful scale based barrier to entry I have ever seen in any industry in that it is impossible(ish) to overcome and ever growing.
Read 7 tweets
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Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
1) Dichotomy between FDX guidance cut and their “whistling past the graveyard” commentary vs. TSM being on allocation at 7 nm and the SOX at all time highs makes me believe all the commentary/rumors around Huawei broadly double ordering semiconductors.
2) And it would be logical for Huawei to have*years* of semi inventory stockpiled in anticipation of worst case scenarios to give China time to develop a domestic semi industry (although how they do this without US equipment/EDA co’s is difficult to understand).
3) Although important to note that semiconductor industry has really improved over the last 20 years via consolidation into a series of duopolies and oligopolies and industry is much better at managing both inventory and capacity cycles. But FDX vs. SOX still interesting.
Read 5 tweets
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Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
1) A media pile on always make me want to look at the other side. WeWork’s core cash on cash unit economics are good, which was highlighted in the excellent Bernstein pre-IPO research and can be teased out of the S-1.
2) Would imagine that the CEO has learned from this experience and the corporate governance changes are positive. Board having the power to remove the CEO is interesting offset to supervoting stock, although details are scarce.
3) Sidenote - am generally in favor of supervoting stock that gives founders 35 to 45% of the vote if it sunsets. If you can’t get 10-30% of other shareholders to agree with a proposal, it might be a mistake worth reconsidering…
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