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Hostility management: This after Russian diplomats told Israel's Channel 1 (whatever it's called now) correspondent @galberger yesterday that "Hezbollah likely to retaliate to drone attack".. basically passing a message: "hey.. we'll do something, don't go crazy now"
@galberger Basically,
1- Netanyahu has an election coming up, needs to look tough on Hizbullah & Iran without a war.
2- Nasrallah needs to look tough on Israel without provoking a war; very broke these days and needs some cash -- not time for a major war.
Resolution: save appearances
1- Netanyahu has an election coming up, needs to look tough on Hizbullah & Iran without a war.
2- Nasrallah needs to look tough on Israel without provoking a war; very broke these days and needs some cash -- not time for a major war.
Resolution: save appearances
Win-Win Hostility:
1- Netanyahu hit Dhahiya with drones claiming to neutralize a major Hizbullah tech project to make precision missiles
2- Nasrallah fires a few missiles & bullets at dummy israeli soldiers & empty armored ambulance
3- Bloodshed at a minimum
4- Move on
1- Netanyahu hit Dhahiya with drones claiming to neutralize a major Hizbullah tech project to make precision missiles
2- Nasrallah fires a few missiles & bullets at dummy israeli soldiers & empty armored ambulance
3- Bloodshed at a minimum
4- Move on
Israel vs Hizbullah - Mutually Assured Embarrassement Doctrine: Sworn enemies trying to figure out how to zing each other without the other losing too much face so not to be forced into a full-scale war. A comedy movie in waiting.
Israel vs Hizbullah: beyond cynicism, both sides know the other can wreak havoc on one another so.. they hold each in check. then try to make the best out of their sincere and genuine animosity with a lot of posturing and grandstanding. in practice, no desire for war.
Israel vs Hizbullah: the truth is that both Nasrallah & Netanyahu figured out how to take the proverbial escalation ladder and laid it horizontally instead of vertically so to keep the conflict manageable.
