Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. On current NWS forecast, this is buoy 41010 130 mi north of #Dorain. Green is pressure. It's not falling and IMO should be if & when #Dorian moves north. This buoy with SPGFI, the one off of Freeport, (currently steady) are #Florida coast's canaries in the coal mine.

2. Computer models are great for preparing but for our storms are often off a bit. I'm fine with that because they give us plenty of time to prepare even if no storm hits. But when watching for a land fall, I'll take a real-time barometer readings and a satellite run any time.

3. But I started storm watching before there were many satellites and computer models were unreliable. Tracked storms on graph paper from coordinates received on shortwave. I think it was after Iniki in 1992 when Hawaii's TV news stations hired people whose job was limited to

4. forecasting the weather.

Here is the satellite run I've been watching. Dorian's just sitting there off shore of Grand Bahama. Spinning in place.
cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SE…

5. The #Dorian satellite image doesn't show any movement but the buoy just west of it has started to fall slightly. I take that to mean it is intensifying a bit. Definite wobble. I've observed that wobble often comes before a turn.

6. 2:47 EDT and #Dorian's wall is starting to lose symmetry and looks like it is closing in. I would usually think that means loss of intensity but pressure at Freetown is falling. Absent movement west that suggest it is intensifying though inconsistent with eye wall change.

7. Here is the GOES run that shoes the loss of eyeball symmetry at the end of the run. cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SE…