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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I think we're back in the kite flying stage of Brexit negotiations, where Number 10 tries desperately to see if anyone is shifting, and / or lays the ground not to be blamed if nothing happens
Here's the question to think about - given what we know about the positions of all those engaged in Brexit talks, can one imagine a flexibility or form of words allowing all to claim a win.

On the expectation nobody significantly changes position.
Right now all proposed Brexit solutions involve someone backing down on something (DUP on N Ireland divergence, UK on EU divergence, EU on Irish border or single market protection) on which they are currently doubling down. Not promising.
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Any fair reading of today in Brexit land would have to conclude that the chances of a deal are low - I'd suggest no greater than 5% by the end of October.
Recall that either or both sides have to move for there to be a deal.

We have heard no indication whatsoever that this will be the EU - regardless of the rights and wrongs of the press conference that was a sign of a negotiation not going well.
The EU position seems to be we need a guarantee, please come up with a proposal where that isn't the backstop.

The UK position is a restatement that the backstop is a non-starter, and to talk about parts of a potential replacement. Nothing like a whole solution.
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
If I'm following this correctly our strong "Hulk" leader has just refused a joint press conference because of some booing.

Playing to the domestic media is fine if you can actually justify it. We've been flunking that in Brexit talks since the start.
UK politicians should be saying this (and to be fair a few have stood up)
But honestly, the PM has just mucked up a diplomatic visit to Luxembourg. Badly enough that the host PM has given a press conference with an empty lectern next to him. This is absolutely basic diplomacy. Something has gone badly wrong.
Read 14 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
From a negotiating point of view the commitment Johnson made in his Merkel press conference to producing proposals in 30 days looks increasingly like he walked straight into an EU trap
There is an argument expressed by some across Europe that the EU has been too tough in Brexit talks, and this could be used as another example. I'm not convinced there are good specific alternatives though, and the EU is a tough negotiator and wishes to remain so.
The UK statement in markedly more positive in tone and content than the EU version.

If two sides are working well in a negotiation this doesn't tend to happen.
Read 3 tweets

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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

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