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There is huge divergence in U.K national polls at the minute with extrapolated outcomes ranging from a hung parliament with Corbyn as PM to a massive Tory landslide. I don’t think the correct way to read current polling is to average these outcomes. (1/3)
The polling numbers from different companies aren’t randomly and evenly spread. There are two batches of pollsters. 1) Those adjusting for false GE2017 voting recall / those not weighting to the last election (showing big Tory leads) and 2) those who don’t (showing a tie) (2/3)
It’s difficult to confidently say who is right but I have my suspicions. An election marked by decreasing party identification, churn, fragmentation and in-campaign change create a cocktail of polling complexity. Don’t rule out a surprise election result again #GE2019 (3/3)
