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1/ To confuse convexity with antifragility can be disastrous. Been there done that marketing products via TV infomercials. We had tremendously convex returns with hits like Riverdance and Lord of the Dance, but the business was NOT antifragile. Why?
2/ The COST of failing in between those RARE convex events almost led to ruin. We iterated *just in time* to avoid ruin while most in that business have declared bankruptcy multiple times. What did we do?
3/ We moved online w/ basically a similar model but crushed down the cost of failure to near zero. This allowed banking those still rare convex rare events that of hit products.
4/ Entrepreneurs get convexity but until they understand avoidance of ruin will they have a successful business that can sustain the time dimension in between *finding* a hit product. *Finding* is not predictable & requires humble trial & error. Crushing down costs is deliberate.
