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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I see everyone is sharing more of these "how would you vote if..." polls again. They are not much use for anything, because people are rubbish at predicting what influences their vote (and routinely over-estimate the influence of whatever the pollster asks about)
If you would like to read a wise and witty summary of all that is wrong and goes wrong with such questions, @anthonyjwells has helpfully provided one in his chapter of Sex, Lies and Politics, my new book with @philipjcowley

amazon.co.uk/Sex-Lies-Polit…
@anthonyjwells @philipjcowley (Don't listen to Amazon - it is in stock)
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Little trivia nugget from "Brexitland" as I work on the final chapter - one of David Cameron's less discussed legacies is the "A-list" policy which encouraged the selection of women and ethnic minority candidates in safe Con seats. Our current Home Sec and Chancellor were both
...selected for safe Con seats after the intro of this policy. Thus it may be said that Cameron's efforts to diversify his party have, in the longer run, played an important role in the rise of Britain's first ever ethnic minority Chancellor, and both of its first EM Home Secs
Experiments by my co-author @smthgsmthg suggest this was a good electoral strategy - white voters given information about growing diversity of Con MPs had more positive views of the party relative to people not given such info.
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
An analysis which combines two personal bogeymen - one dimensional politics (everything *must* be about economic left-right) and false consciousness ("if voters support something that seems obviously wrong to me, it must be because they have been misled).
Simon is right that Ed Miliband didn't fail in 2015 because the public was too right wing on econ issues to elect him. He failed because many of the voters he needed weren't voting on economic issues at all - a problem Ed M recognised (but couldn't address) but Simon just ignores
English politics is dominated by an identity conflict (Brexit) while Scottish politics is completely dominated by two identity conflicts (Brexit and IndyRef). Perhaps not everything is only or mainly about economics, for at least some voters?
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
That is not the only difference between the two companies' approaches to polling - @drjennings , Mark Pickup and I took a comprehensive look at pollsters' choices and their efects here:
sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/hou…
@drjennings It is also unwise to focus on leads rather than shares as all polls are subject to error and the error on lead estimates is much bigger (because it is the difference between two estimates, both with error ranges)
@drjennings Turnout estimation is certainly once challenge, but so is false recall. There is suggestive evidence that many of those who voted Labour in 2017 now claim they did not. Correcting for that reduces Labour's estimated share. Suspect Owen will be less likely to focus on that issue.
Read 3 tweets

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