Thread by @Usherwood

While I'm stuck in the traffic (on the bus, road-safety fans) to the airport, let's think a bit about how best to secure various Brexit outcomes

1/

You'll recall there are only 3 options here:

- leave with a deal
- leave without a deal
- don't leave (ie revoke)

Plus, the old favourite, seek an extension

2/

What's the most reliable way to each of these?

3/

Leaving with a deal had been Plan A under May, and then nominally under Johnson.

There is a text on the table since last Dec, but this Parliament has rejected it repeatedly.

4/

If we assume that this government won't propose it, and that the opposition have no reason to help the government out, then the most reliable route for this deal is probsbly a general election

5/

Even then, it's very unlikely, given the distancing on all sides from that text, so actually we're more likely looking at a revised deal (probably only vestigially), as concluded by a new government, post election

6/

Leaving without a deal seems to be Plan A under Johnson, especially given the last couple of days.

As we know, this requires on positive action (in sense of a vote or agreement by anyone), since it's the default.

7/

However, this Parliament has not only voted against this happening, but has passed the Been Act to require the government to seek an extension to postpone no-deal

Johnson seems to have no legal or political scope to get to no-deal with this Commons

8/

Thus, to get to no-deal you need a new Parliament. Either that produces a government with a majority for a no-deal, or one that allows no-deal to go on a #EUref2 ballot.

More accidentally, a new Parliament would no longer be bound by Benn Act, so UK could fall into no-deal

9/

In practice though, the most secure route to no-deal is getting that majority for it in an election, which partly explains the current doubling-down by No.10

10/

If we move to revocation, then once again it's hard to see it happening with this Parliament. Loss of government majority doesn't change the deep unease many MPs about a direct revocation, or a second referendum with a remain option

11/

Thus, if you want a more reliable route, then one might push for a general election and get s new government with a policy of revocation (LD style) or a referendum (LAB style)

12/

Of course, we should acknowledge that just getting to a referendum certainly doesn't mean remain would win (or even be an option), although it might have more legitimacy than just basing on election results. But that's beyond this thread

13/

And so to extension (which looks like the only path anyone is seriously pursuing right now)

Here it's more complicated, mainly because no-one trusts anyone else that much

14/

The current plan seems to be to keep Johnson in office until 19 Oct, then ensure Benn Act requirements are met, then kick him out with a vote of no confidence

15/

The concern is that Johnson might have a cunning plan [sic] up his sleeve that gets around this

Personally I'm dubious about this, but YMMV

16/

The alternative (h/t @jonworth) would be a VONC now, then install a new government under non-partisan figure, get the extension, then go to elections

17/

The problem with that is that the person you might normally expect to head up an alternative administration in this Parliament, the Leader of the Opposition, isn't that keen on missing out

18/

To summarise, none of the options has a risk free pathway. Most importantly, an election is a gateway to a definitive decision, but it'd be very foolhardy to rely on the outcome going the way you want.

And the airport is here now, so I bid you adieu

/end