Angela Merkel says EU countries will now examine Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals “closely and evaluate them together. It is important that we stick together as 27” she said /1
Boris Johnson should not underestimate the importance the EU places on unity when it comes to Brexit. I see no appetite in EU to turn back on Ireland over these proposals. /2
Since EU as whole doesn’t want to be seen to slam door in UKs face and since EU leaders want a deal and want to lean on the PM to build on his proposals rather than insist they take it or leave it .. /3
It works rather well for Brussels if Dublin expresses its inevitable criticism of PMs ideas. This will allow Merkel, Juncker etc to stand back and seem more ‘open-minded’. /4
Whether or not there is a deal depends on whether the PM is willing to use these proposals as starting point for negotiations. As things stand the UK is calling on the EU to trust (no VAT checks between NIreland+Ireland, exemptions from some EU customs regs etc) BUT /5
EU won’t trust. It says it wants ‘legally operable solutions’ . If PM open to more compromise on his proposals, the two sides have something to talk about. EU will compromise IF it sees an acceptable deal in sight... /6
Questions in Brussels remain: Does Boris Johnson REALLY want a deal or does he prefer to keep his arch Brexiteer credentials intact (ahead of a general elex)? Question 2: If a new deal is struck, will parliament approve it esp in light of animosity towards PM amongst many MPs? /7
