Thread by @Staedtler

So. How many seats will decide the general election?
I'm glad you asked, because I'm going to see if I can work it out.

We always begin with Labour and Tory safe seats.
Labour and the Tories are going to win 220 each. So that's 440.

And the Lib Dems, SNP and others all added up say 80 - ish. Probably more, but 80 for approx.

So that's 520 seats.

After that there are 130 seats left. Marginals, though varying one way or the other in tone and degree.
Of those 130 the Tories need 100+

But Labour only needs 20+ to keep them out

Now, the Tories can win those marginals, and often do. But those seats spread across the centre. The more seats the Tories want to win, the more centrist they have to be.

The Tories need 100+ of those marginal seats, so they'll have to come quite a long way over to the centre.
And here's the kick.
The more centrist the Tories position themselves to win those 100 marginals, the more the Brexit party munches into them over at the far right

There is no policy that the Tories can cover as many votes as they need to win the election.
They're still going to be the biggest party. They are certainly going to beat Labour by maybe up to a hundred seats. But they still can't win the election.

The Tories were good at winning elections in a two party system. But that was back in the 1980s.
They can't win majorities since. The trouble with the Tories is they still think they're a landslide government, and they're not.

Theresa May kept acting like she had a landslide government when she didn't, and Boris Johnson is acting the same way.