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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 3 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Johnson's Brexit plan: Why customs could be the deal breaker by @tconnellyRTE

@tconnellyRTE We've seen a lot of confusion about what customs checks involve. Everything checked? Nothing checked? In between?

Here's a neat explanation of the UK proposal. Only some consignments are physically checked, all consignments are cleared.

rte.ie/news/analysis-…
@tconnellyRTE Under-reported detail: The UK is "asking the EU to outsource the nature of EU customs law to this body. …

"'This is completely legally fraught. … You can't give an instruction to the Joint Committee to start rewriting the [EU] Customs Code.'"

rte.ie/news/analysis-…
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Some clarification of how the retaliation (officially “countermeasures”) works.

It's what I thought but I couldn't find it spelt out in writing.

Recap: this is about action WTO members have authorised the US to take against the EU because of illegal subsidies for Airbus.

1/15
The US has been authorised to retaliate against the EU (including the UK) to an amount of up to $7.5bn.

What does that mean?

As explained to me:

2/15
1. The $7.5bn comes from a very complex calculation of the trade lost (and “impeded”) by subsidies given directly or indirectly to Airbus.

The calculation is very complex and controversial, but I won’t go into that.

This is about the retaliation based on that figure.

3/15
Read 15 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
OK, @Jim_Cornelius

Does the WTO Airbus case involve only member states’ subsidies (France, Germany, Spain, UK), or the EU’s as well?

The answer lies in the following docs, the main parts totalling 2,535 pages.

Naturally I read the whole lot this morning before lunch:

1/8 Screenshot of text: The documents<br /> • • Original 2010 panel report, WT/DS316/R (1049 pages plus SIX annexes)<br /> • Original 2011 Appellate Body report, WT/DS/316/AB/R, (645 pages)<br /> • Compliance panel report 2016 — has the EU has complied? — WT/DS316/RW (574 pages plus 154-page annex)<br /> • Appellate Body report on compliance, 2018, WT/DS316/AB/RW (267 pages plus 71-page annex)<br /> Total 2,535 pages excluding annexes
Remember, we only want to know:

Do the rulings involve EU subsidies? Or only subsidies by 4 member states (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇸🇬🇧)

The case is here: wto.org/english/tratop…

To find the docs, click “search all documents”. Use the filter buttons on the left of the search result.

2/8 Screenshot of section under
The rulings are very complex. They include eg:

What’s the cumulative effect of several types of subsidies?

If you subsidise in year X how long does the effect last?

What is the state of the market for the types of aircraft concerned and the effect of the subsidies?

etc

3/8
Read 8 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
In case you missed it

Yesterday an arbitration panel authorised the largest ever retaliation in @wto history.

The US can impose tariffs or barriers to services trade on up to $7.5 billion of imports from the EU & member states, including the UK👇🏽

1/13

The US has chosen tariffs rather than barriers on services.

Details and explanations are in that thread (in 1/12 above👆🏽)

and here👇🏽.

It’s worth bearing in mind a number of key points.



2/13
The US has announced retaliation—10% added to tariffs on aircraft, and 25% for other products listed.

It isn’t unilateral. It’s fully legitimate under the WTO’s multilateral system which the UK helped to create & in which the UK is a full member.

ustr.gov/sites/default/…

3/13
Read 15 tweets

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Rem Korteweg
@remkorteweg
Ik sprak met @NUnl over het nieuwe plan van Boris Johnson om de Ierse backstop te vervangen en een nieuw #Brexit akkoord te smeden.

Ik zei dat de eerste reactie vd Commissie afhoudend maar niet afwijzend was. De toon van de EU is sindsdien verhard. 1/
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EU ziet nu geen aanknopingspunten om te onderhandelen. Dat is niet hetzelfde als de deur dichtgooien, maar de kans op een doorbraak voor de EU raad van 17-18 oktober is miniem. Tenzij Johnson verder draait.

Waar zit het probleem?

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Zoals @pmdfoster uitlegt, er zijn 2 grote zorgpunten bij de EU:

1. Boris' plan vereist douanecontroles tussen Noord-Ierland en Ierland. De EU (en Dublin) geloven er niet dat dit zonder fysieke controles opgelost kan worden. Dus komt er een harde grens en dat is een rode lijn.
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Profile picture
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
EXC: Full readout of @BorisJohnson #Brexit deal that was briefed to EU capitals today - it's extraordinary - tl;dr "Two borders, for four years."

Story here:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Full gut, section by section, here:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

1/Thread
@BorisJohnson First, the broad offer:

- Northern Ireland remains aligned for agri/industrial goods, dynamically, for four years

- But remains in UK customs territory, so customs checks N-S border in Ireland. /2
So that creates TWO borders.

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- and one N-S for customs etc. along lines @tconnellyRTE leaked last night /3
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Just words thrown out at random. That seems to be Boris Johnson's Brexit plan. Million-to-one against no-deal, leave or die on October 31, believe in Britain. Not exactly Churchill is it? theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
So far not featuring in any leadership debate, what exactly is it we want for our future relationship with the EU? Three years after the referendum we evidently got bored of the question without answering it. Perhaps Johnson is the perfect symbol of this.
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@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
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The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
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Robert #FBPE
@yaxleymellis
#Brexit and Lord of the Flies. A primer from a recovering English teacher.

1. It starts off as quite a good analogy. Jack thinks everything will be ok "because we're British, and the British are the best at everything."
2. Democracy is loudly proclaimed. The conch gives everyone a voice, guarantees the will of the people.
3. But from the start there are leadership issues. Jack proclaims he should be leader because "he can sing C#", much as Boris claims leadership ability on the back of cod Latin and amusing journalism.
Read 13 tweets

Trending hashtags

#KeepTheFaith #Brexit #Johnson #StopBrexit #BradyAmendment #NoDeal #WTOBrexit #nodeal #EURef #Conservatism #IrishBorder #A50 #EUCO #C4Brexit #Chequers #RevokeArticle50 #RevokeA50 #euco #ireland #FinalSay #FBPE #PeoplesVote #BrexitChaos #border #customs
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