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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Amazing what polling pressure can do.

Pressure from UKIP on the Eurosceptic flank forced a reluctant Con leadership to back an EU ref

Now pressure from Lib Dems on the Remain flank keeps pushing a reluctant Lab leadership to back another - first after an elec, now before.
The more cynical interpretation would be that if Johnson brought a deal back early next week, the possibility of a Commons majority for a pre-elec 2nd ref will fall to nearly zero, so Lab leadership can back it symbolically without much risk of it actually happening. 2/?
3/? The reason being the existence of a substantial cohort of MPs who would prefer immediate 2nd ref to no deal, but would prefer backing adeal over either option (Con MPs Johnson expelled, some Lab MPs in Leave areas)
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
I've said in this tweet that I am certain that this policy commitment is commiting our government to a new Windrush scandal. I want to explain why I am so certain of this. THREAD 1/?
2/? First, we need to understand what conditions created first Windrush crisis. It was a combination of 3 things:
1. An imperfect system for proving status
2. A large population who needed to prove status but was unaware of this
3. A draconian and inflexible enforcement system
Windrush was a consequence of two sets of legislation combined: the 1971 Immigration Act which gave Home Office huge discretionary deportation powers and the Coalition legislation setting up the "Hostile Environment" which meant those who could not prove status to... 3/?
Read 13 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Expect we will see a lot of these "wizard of Oz" stories this election cycle, as we do every election cycle, as journalists attribute magical powers to quite banal and standard campaign data collection and analysis techniques
news.sky.com/story/the-lib-…
Maybe ever more than usual given the massive fuss about Cambridge Analytica, who may have done dodgy things but weren't doing anything particularly clever in terms of data analysis or modelling as far as I've ever seen.
There will also be related "wizard of Oz" narratives attributing magical powers to campaign strategists, because everyone prefers agency based stories (Cons won because Dom is a genius) to structure ones (Cons won because of complex shifts in vote that were little to do with Dom)
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
These predictions are v sensitive to assumptons in our current fragmented politics. Change the assumptions, the prediction will change sharply too.
The implicit assumption here seems to be "No Deal leads to Cons winning big chunk of BXP vote *and nothing else changes*"

That seems unlikely to me. In fact, it seems unlikely to me that any move which secures 3/4 of BXP vote for Cons won't cost them votes elsewhere.
If we ran the scenario "No Deal alienates Con Remainers and a chunk of voters who still vote on economic competence grounds, while winning fewer BXP voters than expected from Lab" then we would end up with a v different graph. V hard to know ahead of time which scenario we get.
Read 4 tweets

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⚫️ #StopBrexit #StopTheCoup #GTTO
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Hi all!
After over a week of avoiding all social media & only catching the news on the radio, I feel I've regained perspective & I've also learned a lot from stepping back and out of the #Remain bubble. My observations:
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Been holding off on posting this #Thread regarding the #LocalElection2019 going on in England and Northern Ireland, but the results are fascinating to me here in Scotland for sure. There is a clear #RemainBacklash going on and this is HUGE, shall go into more detail on why.
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Jane King
@palebd
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@FranceintheUK
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