, 11 tweets, 3 min read
I think anyway one reads this document, the US capitulated to Turkey's demands+thus Erdogan secured a major strategic victory, which will allow Turkish army more leeway on ground. However a quick look shows the document is not worth paper its written on, with many unclear goals.
So let's break this down. I think obvious point is it gives zero recognition to YPG, or Kurds. This document pretty much equates the YPG as being terrorists, a Turkish claim, and one that most in US Congress are clearly arguing against. This in itself is a HUGE Turkish gain.
Further, Turkey received US recognition of its right to protect its border by occupying a foreign country. Of course this is NOT internationally binding-but this is nothing to brush aside. The US supports Turkish occupation of Northern Syria--a safe zone, Turkey has long sought.
So, yes, Turkey's safe zone now has support of the White House, which inherently counters right of the YPG to be on the ground they are claiming. Of course, this document does not touch upon fact the US is no longer a power there, and thus, it'll be Russia making final decision.
Article 12 is a doozy: It lifts sanction once Turkey pauses its activities, thus its highly unlikely US Congress will be able to pass a sanction bill as long "pause" is in place, or if Turkey is at least abiding partially by document. Trump certainly played a number on Congress.
Therefore, hard to imagine US congress, at least at this stage, gathering support for a sanction bills, something the Trump obviously veto, if needed. Missing also in the text are the forces that are supporting Turkey in Syria, who have been accused of war crimes. Zero, zilch.
And, the future? Will ceasefire hold? Will Syria continue to grab military points? And Russia? How will YPG act? Will Congress still pursue sanctions? Even w/all these variables, Erdogan can rest today; Turkish pundits reorganize arguments-in short a huge Turkish political gain.
One aspect I did not address, which only strengthens Turkey's huge diplomatic/strategic victory today is Trump's comments since, which clearly show Turkey got what it wanted. In Trump's words: "This outcome is something they’ve [Turkey has] been trying to get for 10 years."
Its no wonder that Turkey's pro-gov media outlets were full of praise for Trump today--because Trump was dishing out praise for Erdogan. Seems we all laughed at Trump's letter yesterday, but Erdogan understood Trump: act like you are doing what he wants and he will be happy.
So Trump believes he saved millions of lives and his showing "rough love" to Turkey worked. Now according to @peterbakernyt, Trump said at a rally that it was good to let the Turks attack the Kurds: "Sometimes you have to let them fight like two kids...Then you pull them apart."
@peterbakernyt Well, this only strengthens my point from yesterday that Turkey reeled in a major diplomatic/strategic gain. Donald Trump has now for the second time given Erdogan a green light to pursue his attack on the YPG. It also gives him a freehand to act as he wants w/in Turkey as well.
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