Russia and Syria are the biggest winners of the new Russia-Turkey deal. I'd also argue that any resettlement plan Erdogan had for the region is all but lost dream. If US capitulated to Turkey last week, Turkey capitulated to Russia today. Can't see they received much out of deal. 
So, as I did last week, lets break this down. Why claim Russia and Syria are biggest winners? Did Turkey really lose out? And, what now for the YPG and the Syrian Kurds? Of course, this is an initial agreement, and could change here and there. But the spirit of it is quite clear.
As I stated earlier in a tweet, Assad's visit to Idlib today was sending a message that he is in control, and will have the final say. Ironically, on very same day that Erdogan has officially recognized Syrian hegemony of the Northern border, Assad chose to call Erdogan a thief.
Assad called out Erdogan on numerous acts of stealing+ ended by saying he is stealing [Syria's] land. This leads to point that even if Turkey is coming closer to Russia, we cannot forget that Putin and Assad have a pact, thus it is Assad's interests which will always come first.
Article 3 seems to give Turkey a temporary "buffer zone" it wanted, albeit over a much smaller territory. This at least gives Turkey chance to climb down tree and produce facts on ground, to show this whole invasion was not for nothing. However its far from its original goals.
This leads to perhaps most baffling question: Did Erdogan ever really wants this? When US was there it was convenient to use it as a punching bag+claim US was preventing him from achieving goals. However, it seems he was just as surprised by Trump's pullout as everyone else was.
Meaning, it seems either that Erdogan truly wanted to make up with Syria (one follower mentioned) or he simply did not know where this invasion would lead. Leaving Kobani out of deal, and guaranteeing Syria will protect its interests there and in Manbij, just seems far fetched.
Clearly Erdogan's plan to settle Syrian refugees in a buffer zone in that region is off the books. The plan to begin w/seemed doomed to fail but why would Syria/Russia allow this, not to mention that if refugees could go home they'd do that+not go there, in the middle of nowhere.
Now to YPG/SDF they must be strategizing behind scenes, w/them not simply "packing up+going home." No doubt they are only group not consulted, but in this agreement there is not clear correlation between the "terrorist" elements mentioned+the YPG. Turkey can't be happy w/this.
And, the US? Who remembers them by now! Today's agreement strengthens my claim Trump would be able to enforce abandonment of Kurds+the loud opposition in US would be ineffective to reverse change. So, yes, Turkey won that round, US completely went bankrupt+Russia came out on top!
I might add, that there is one group made up of many i did not comment on--thats the radical Islamist fighters+their likes supported by Turkey. It seems they're time is limited, but not clear where they will go--and of course, not even addressing escaped and jailed ISIS members.
