So what's going on with the French position on Brexit? Some thoughts after chats. Senior French officials say their position will remain unchanged: no long delay to Brexit without a clear reason – ie an election or referendum 1/
A shorter extension – maybe 2 or 3 weeks - is possible to allow the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to get through the Commons. If WAB fails, and an election is called, then yet another extension could “reluctantly” be considered 2/
Several factors complicate the French position. Firstly, Macron is in French overseas department of Reunion in the Indian ocean, where he has been greeted by demos & a general strike. His mind & body are in a different time zone. It’s difficult to get him to concentrate on Brexit
Secondly, he’s already in the middle of a row with his EU partners after he vetoed accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania. Can he really afford to pick another big quarrel with the rest of the EU? 4/
Third, Macron is genuinely sick of Brexit. He wants this phase over so EU has space & energy for other stuff. He believes he was right in April & he's right now: another delay without clear commitment to an election would once again be wasted in further circular argument in UK 5/
Fourth, Macron has decided that Boris Johnson is a good thing. Why? Not because he agrees with him on very much but because he sees him as the best way of getting Brexit done quickly. Macron swallows the Downing Street line that a short extension would concentrate minds 6/
and a long extension would muddle them. A senior French source speaks of an “an alliance of convenience” between an “Odd Couple” 7/
And so? Paris will continue to oppose a long extension until 31 Jan, unless an election is called. Johnson will not push for an election unless a long delay is granted by the EU. Therefore, deadlock 8/
But can Macron finally afford to veto an A50 extension & plunge UK & EU into a No Deal crisis? Not really. But he DOES want a small victory/compromise (ie a shorter extension than the Benn Act) 9/
He like the others wants to avoid another summit next week but senior French sources do not rule out the possibility that he will force one ENDS
