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Here's why we will *never* get good trade deals outside the EU... It's hardly rocket science. We may be the 6th largest economy in the world, but the graph drops off like a cliff. We're small fry compared to the sharks: the USA, EU and China. We have no chance!
#Marr #Ridge
And before you go all "but Brexit was not about the economy" on me, how do you think we pay for everything else? Can't tackle the NHS, hire more police, reverse school cuts or do anything else if the asteroid strike of Brexit has cratered the UK economy. Wakey wakey!
Finally, we're the world's 6th largest economy (used to be the 5th before Brexit, but who's counting) *because* we're in the EU, not *despite* of it! So using our supposed economic strength as an argument to "prove" we'll be OK if we go it alone is logically absurd.
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Scenario A (no Brexit)
GDP Year 1: £100
GDP Year 2: £102
GDP Year 3: £105
Total: £307

Scenario B (Brexit)
GDP Year 1: £100
GDP Year 2: £101
GDP Year 3: £103
Total: £304

This illustrates how Brexit can make us poorer even though the economy's still growing in both scenarios.
We don't have to have negative GDP growth to be poorer as a country. Growing less fast still makes us *relatively* worse off. (It's only fair to compare to the scenario where Brexit didn't happen.)

If I expected £307 but only got £304, am I
A) £4 better off
B) £3 worse off
?
And if I can point directly to Brexit as the cause of that £3 loss, it must surely be fair to say that Brexit will make us £3 worse off *than if we didn't go through with it*?
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Quickfire Brexit Truth Thread...

1. We can't get decent trade deals outside the EU. Why?
We're the 6th largest economy but we're tiny compared to the sharks of the USA, the EU itself and China. (We already have trade deals with most other economies of any size thanks to the EU.)
2. We can't replace EU trade with trade with the rest of the world. Why?
The EU is near. The rest of the world is far. Look on any globe. Sea freight shipping times are guaranteed to kill just-in-time production (and rot fresh food). That geography will never change.
3. We can't replace sea freight with air freight. Why?
In 2017, the UK transported 486,000,000 tons of freight by sea versus only 2,739,000 tons by air. That’s 177 times less than we move by sea. It's literally impossible to bridge that sort of gap.
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
What many lose track of (even me from time to time) is that the legality of the referendum has no bearing on Brexit.

If the referendum had been squeaky clean, that might push us slightly more to try and implement it, however it wouldn't make *Brexit itself* a better idea.
It doesn't matter if 1 person voted for Brexit, or 1 billion people did... Their votes do not and indeed cannot influence the quality of Brexit. It's a bad idea because reality says so, not because of some fiddled plebiscite.
Of course, armed with proof (eg a dodge dossier on Russian interference) it would be easier to walk away from the terrible idea that is Brexit, but that's about implementation not about the fundamental concept.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Hilary. I'm a Joiner. We all are.
@atatimelikethis
Leave Fallacies Thread

Trade Section

All fallacies applied to or derived from 🇬🇧 Trading Situation
Trade 1.
EU provides Non-EU #trade

Leave (mostly) don't know the #EU provides trade deals for (including in negotiation) 80% of our global trade both in and outside of the EU

Tend to say leaving the EU and taking tariffs on EU trade opens up the world. When it closes it
Trade 2. Commonwealth EMOTION.
The belief is EU suppresses trade with the Commonwealth. Don't know, once you exclude individual negotiations with Canada/Aus/India, that the EU gives most of the Commonwealth tariff-free access to the EU. Instead, leave means going backwards.
Read 11 tweets
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Wolf F. BBC Vicar #FBPE #FBR 🇬🇧❤️🇪🇺🏍️
@FreitagWolf
Macron do warned the others NOT to give 6 months extension to the UK, just few weeks until end of April 2019. Moderate Merkel and Tusk have won last time. We all see now Macron was right. No more favors to the British bullies.
31 Oct and you're kicked out of the EU.

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…

Honestly nobody wants you in EU anymore. Literally no-one. Even Le Pen and Orban.
Barnier is polite wants a deal because this is literally his job. EU voters don't want the UK.
No offence, but No Deal will cost the EU 0.25% of our GDP. Meh...
Read 19 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Let's put together the meaning of softer US growth in Q4 2018 & abysmal trade/IP data in Asia in Q1 2019 & implications. We know:

a) Asian trade were gang-buster up until Nov 2018 b/c of 👍🏻US demand & front-loading;

b) But Asian trade & IP started to lose steam rapidly in 2019
As the US is the largest economy in the world & also the largest customer for China (& key for other countries), what Asian exports, Americans import.

Okay, let's look at US imports in 2018 - amazing growth thanks to 📈demand + front-loading on expectations of higher tariffs 👇🏻
Don't have US Q1 GDP but know that US imports 📉& know that Asian exporters 📉, so:

a) Demand for Asian goods from the US is down📉 due to large inventory build-up due to expectations so the front-loading impact is going in reverse;

b) US inventory draw-down needs to happen 1st
Read 9 tweets
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James Holland
@James7Holland
THREAD..

..on the biggest and baddest lobbyists in EU town

..the huge influence they have on EU lawmaking

..and how many represent interests from outside the EU.

/1
According to Transparency International @TI_EU, the lobby organisation that has held the most high-level meetings at the European Commission between 2014 and 2018 is @BusinessEurope.

"BusinessEurope?!?" you ask.

/2
@TI_EU @BusinessEurope It is hardly surprising that the vast majority of people have never heard of BusinessEurope.

There is a worrying media blackout about how a complex network of organisations lobby the #EU on behalf of the world largest corporations.

/3
Read 27 tweets
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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺❄️
@StuartBudd1
Unite Members:

57% backed #PeoplesVote
24% leave voters backed #PeoplesVote

West Midlands car workers:
“Only now have voters started to see through the initial referendum campaigns and truly understand the implications & costs of leaving the EU."

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Unite union:

"open to the possibility of a vote on any deal the Tories come back with"

"members fears that the Tories' in-fighting and destructive red lines will bring ruin to their jobs and communities"

Unite Statement:
unitebrexitcheck.org/unite-policy-c…

#PeoplesVote
Great speech by Julie Ward MEP on why she marched with #WomenForEurope for a #PeoplesVote

Women and the young will be the most affected by #Brexit



#PeoplesVote
#StopBrexit
#FBPE
Read 50 tweets

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